Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Down 89%
2 arb excluded
$797.23
$14.67
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $256.31 | $295.69 | +$39.38 | 47% 6525-7238 (13763) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62¢ | $183.36 | $295.69 | +$112.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.6¢ | $72.95 | — | -$72.95 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $178.93 | $185.27 | +$6.33 | 51% 10526-9985 (20511) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $137.3 | $153.94 | +$16.63 | 45% 40086-48022 (88108) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.7¢ | $105.77 | $153.94 | +$48.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $31.53 | — | -$31.53 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 99.1¢ | $78.69 | $79.43 | +$0.74 | 30% 12164-28131 (40295) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $18.53 | $27.11 | +$8.58 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $10.57 | $13.75 | +$3.18 | 55% 51660-42833 (94493) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $22.79 | $13.46 | -$3.8 | 65% 130257-70136 (200393) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $9.89 | $12.96 | +$3.07 | 58% 63285-46506 (109791) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.3¢ | $4.98 | — | -$4.98 | 51% 12072-11547 (23619) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99.1¢ | $10.89 | $7 | -$3.89 | 61% 98591-62582 (161173) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $3.19 | $8.63 | +$5.44 | 65% 114575-61604 (176179) |
Invested
$256.31
Value
$295.69
PnL
+$39.38
Record
47%
6525-7238 (13763)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.93
Value
$185.27
PnL
+$6.33
Record
51%
10526-9985 (20511)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$137.3
Value
$153.94
PnL
+$16.63
Record
45%
40086-48022 (88108)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.69
Value
$79.43
PnL
+$0.74
Record
30%
12164-28131 (40295)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$27.11
PnL
+$8.58
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.57
Value
$13.75
PnL
+$3.18
Record
55%
51660-42833 (94493)
Invested
$22.79
Value
$13.46
PnL
-$3.8
Record
65%
130257-70136 (200393)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$3.07
Record
58%
63285-46506 (109791)
Invested
$4.98
Value
—
PnL
-$4.98
Record
51%
12072-11547 (23619)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$7
PnL
-$3.89
Record
61%
98591-62582 (161173)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$8.63
PnL
+$5.44
Record
65%
114575-61604 (176179)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $185.27
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $79.43
asdaefef
Down — $27.11
MayorMamdani
Down — $13.75
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $13.46
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $12.96
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $7