Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 75¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 6

Up26¢Down74¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$263.9

Combined PnL

-$18.1

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 74.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up26%

Down75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$167.4

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$21.33

Up4 traders

Total Value$38.94

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$3.23

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 75.5¢	$109.67	$111.99	+$2.32	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$53.28	$57.55	+$4.27	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.2¢	$21.82	$32.9	+$11.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.5¢	$31.46	$24.65	-$6.81
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 24.3¢	$27.82	$31.47	+$3.65	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$42.68	$25.24	-$17.45	56% 77387-59788 (137175)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$12	$11.81	-$0.19	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$13.71	$10	-$3.71	63% 42429-25148 (67577)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$5.91	$5.5	-$0.41	30% 12164-28131 (40295)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 6.7¢	$3.94	$3.35	-$0.59	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$2.86	$3.03	+$0.17	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 83¢	$4.76	$2.87	-$1.89	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 27.3¢	$1.09	$1.1	+$0.01	49% 80962-84399 (165361)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$109.67

Value

$111.99

PnL

+$2.32

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.28

Value

$57.55

PnL

+$4.27

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

Both legs:

Up$21.8218.2¢+$11.08

Down$31.4692.5¢-$6.81

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$27.82

Value

$31.47

PnL

+$3.65

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$42.68

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$17.45

Record

56%

77387-59788 (137175)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$11.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$13.71

Value

$10

PnL

-$3.71

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.41

Record

30%

12164-28131 (40295)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.59

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$4.76

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$1.89

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

80962-84399 (165361)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.8%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.