Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (73%) · Up at 100¢ · $476 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

Total Value

$475.96

Combined PnL

$15.81

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$454.54

Total Shares494

Combined PnL+$14.84

Down3 traders

Total Value$21.42

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$0.97

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Upavg 54.3¢	$99.23	$135.11	+$35.88	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 74.8¢	$118.56	$87.85	-$30.71	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$90.57	$87	-$3.57	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$59.34	$55.54	-$3.79	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 72.2¢	$31.4	$43.28	+$11.88	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$22.88	$30.38	+$7.5	49% 80962-84399 (165361)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$12.51	$12.05	-$0.46	63% 42429-25148 (67577)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$8.94	$10	+$1.06	61% 46076-29253 (75329)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$6.73	$6.42	-$0.32	56% 60523-47081 (107604)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$4.77	$5	+$0.23	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$5.21	$3.33	-$1.88	65% 130257-70136 (200393)

pspspsps5

Invested

$99.23

Value

$135.11

PnL

+$35.88

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

ply-pm2

Invested

$118.56

Value

$87.85

PnL

-$30.71

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$90.57

Value

$87

PnL

-$3.57

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$59.34

Value

$55.54

PnL

-$3.79

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$31.4

Value

$43.28

PnL

+$11.88

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$22.88

Value

$30.38

PnL

+$7.5

Record

49%

80962-84399 (165361)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

$12.05

PnL

-$0.46

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.94

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.06

Record

61%

46076-29253 (75329)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$0.32

Record

56%

60523-47081 (107604)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.77

Value

PnL

+$0.23

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$1.88

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.