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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 60%

Total Value

$367.58

Combined PnL

-$339.07

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$367.58

Total Shares368

Combined PnL+$24.62

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares437

Combined PnL-$363.69

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 58.2¢	$146.83	$165	+$18.17	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 44.4¢	$127.16	—	-$127.16	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$107.43	$108.52	+$1.09	89% 29315-3554 (32869)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 70.6¢	$184.43	—	-$184.43	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 62¢	$56.4	$47.8	-$8.6	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$25.2	$34.15	+$8.95	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$23.95	—	-$23.95	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$13.71	—	-$13.71	56% 60523-47081 (107604)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$6.09	—	-$6.09	49% 80962-84399 (165361)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$4.14	—	-$4.14	61% 98591-62582 (161173)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$4.81	$7.93	+$3.12	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$2.29	$4.18	+$1.89	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$1.55	—	-$1.55	63% 42429-25148 (67577)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.15	—	-$0.15	59% 63890-45025 (108915)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	66% 130591-67529 (198120)

Invested

$146.83

Value

$165

PnL

+$18.17

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

Invested

$127.16

Value

—

PnL

-$127.16

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

Invested

$107.43

Value

$108.52

PnL

+$1.09

Record

89%

29315-3554 (32869)

Invested

$184.43

Value

—

PnL

-$184.43

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

$47.8

PnL

-$8.6

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$34.15

PnL

+$8.95

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$23.95

Value

—

PnL

-$23.95

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$13.71

Value

—

PnL

-$13.71

Record

56%

60523-47081 (107604)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

—

PnL

-$6.09

Record

49%

80962-84399 (165361)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

—

PnL

-$4.14

Record

61%

98591-62582 (161173)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$3.12

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$1.89

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

—

PnL

-$1.55

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

Invested

$0.15

Value

—

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

63890-45025 (108915)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9e60c2e...8fe3c9

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794008400

Traders in this Market

asdcaxz

Down — $165

ply-pm2

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $108.52

pspspsps5

Up — $0

blue.birds

Down — $47.8

MayorMamdani

Down — $34.15

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

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