Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 6

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$20.5

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$354.16

Total Shares359

Combined PnL-$8.86

Up5 traders

Total Value$155.02

Total Shares247

Combined PnL-$11.64

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 39.7¢	$218.32	$278.34	+$60.02	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$95.06	$219.38	+$124.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$123.25	$58.96	-$64.29
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$132.26	$128.22	-$4.04	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$66.96	$85.25	+$18.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$65.3	$42.97	-$22.33
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 78.1¢	$205.98	$121.95	-$84.03	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$70.9	$72.63	+$1.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.1¢	$135.08	$49.32	-$85.75
MayorMamdani	Downavg 86¢	$122.16	$114.24	-$7.92	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 61.4¢	$113.35	$103.09	-$10.26	51% 10467-9935 (20402)
OhioRiskManagementCTR	Upavg 73.4¢	$102	$89.64	-$12.36	49% 80904-84349 (165253)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 97¢	$51.26	$52.83	+$1.58	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 43.9¢	$28	$28.12	+$0.12	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 99¢	$27.8	$27.38	-$0.42	30% 12152-28123 (40275)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$15.35	$24.45	+$9.1	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 61¢	$21.75	$22.17	+$0.42	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 26.2¢	$13.52	$18.52	+$5	61% 98537-62529 (161066)
OhioAICTR<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$15.62	$14.25	-$1.37	54% 10448-8804 (19252)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$11.35	$10	-$1.35	56% 60478-47044 (107522)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$9.07	$4.49	-$3.03	65% 130170-70085 (200255)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$218.32

Value

$278.34

PnL

+$60.02

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

Both legs:

Down$95.0635.1¢+$124.32

Up$123.2539.7¢-$64.29

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.26

Value

$128.22

PnL

-$4.04

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

Both legs:

Down$66.9656.9¢+$18.29

Up$65.341.8¢-$22.33

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$205.98

Value

$121.95

PnL

-$84.03

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

Both legs:

Down$70.969.8¢+$1.72

Up$135.0878.1¢-$85.75

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$122.16

Value

$114.24

PnL

-$7.92

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$113.35

Value

$103.09

PnL

-$10.26

Record

51%

10467-9935 (20402)

OhioRiskManagementCTR

Invested

$102

Value

$89.64

PnL

-$12.36

Record

49%

80904-84349 (165253)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$51.26

Value

$52.83

PnL

+$1.58

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$28

Value

$28.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$27.8

Value

$27.38

PnL

-$0.42

Record

30%

12152-28123 (40275)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$15.35

Value

$24.45

PnL

+$9.1

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$21.75

Value

$22.17

PnL

+$0.42

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.52

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$5

Record

61%

98537-62529 (161066)

OhioAICTR<$100

Invested

$15.62

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$1.37

Record

54%

10448-8804 (19252)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$11.35

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.35

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$9.07

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$3.03

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.