Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (92%) · Down at 83¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 6

Up18¢Down82¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

Total Value

$376.38

Combined PnL

$52.93

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 82.5¢

+18% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up18%

Down83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$361.48

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$53.15

Up1 trader

Total Value$14.9

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.22

Down — 92%Up — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 67.1¢	$76.68	$93.45	+$16.77	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$83.03	$91.98	+$8.95	49% 80904-84349 (165253)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 65¢	$41.74	$58.58	+$16.84	51% 10467-9935 (20402)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$29.67	$35.18	+$5.5	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$21.32	$29.8	+$8.48	56% 60478-47044 (107522)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$15.12	$14.9	-$0.22	52% 12296-11333 (23629)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 87¢	$13.38	$13.92	+$0.54	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$12.73	$10	-$2.73	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$13.32	$10	-$3.32	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$4.43	$5.76	+$1.33	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$5.33	$5.59	+$0.26	61% 98537-62529 (161066)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.5	$4.71	+$1.21	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$3.18	$2.5	-$0.68	65% 130170-70085 (200255)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$76.68

Value

$93.45

PnL

+$16.77

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$83.03

Value

$91.98

PnL

+$8.95

Record

49%

80904-84349 (165253)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$41.74

Value

$58.58

PnL

+$16.84

Record

51%

10467-9935 (20402)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$29.67

Value

$35.18

PnL

+$5.5

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$21.32

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$8.48

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$15.12

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.22

Record

52%

12296-11333 (23629)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$13.38

Value

$13.92

PnL

+$0.54

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$12.73

Value

$10

PnL

-$2.73

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$13.32

Value

$10

PnL

-$3.32

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$4.43

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$1.33

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$0.26

Record

61%

98537-62529 (161066)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$1.21

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.18

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.68

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.