Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (66%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 34¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 6

Up66¢Down34¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$224.51

Combined PnL

-$14.42

Research grade

NeutralDown at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Up 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up66%

Down34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$68.45

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$7.19

Down7 traders

Total Value$84.34

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$7.23

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$71.91	$71.73	-$0.18	51% 10467-9935 (20402)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$41.3	$50.04	+$8.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$30.61	$21.69	-$8.92
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$31.78	$27.33	-$4.45	49% 80904-84349 (165253)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$25.7	$26.68	+$0.98	56% 60478-47044 (107522)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$23.32	$21.63	-$1.69	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$21.7	$20	-$1.7	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$20.86	$18.88	-$1.98	61% 98537-62529 (161066)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$10.55	$10	-$0.55	61% 46036-29200 (75236)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$11.35	$6.8	-$4.55	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 57¢	$6.9	$6.46	-$0.44	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$4.85	$5.1	+$0.25	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$5.07	$5	-$0.07	30% 12152-28123 (40275)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$3.08	$3.03	-$0.06	65% 130170-70085 (200255)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$2.03	$1.88	-$0.16	47% 6472-7172 (13644)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$71.91

Value

$71.73

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

10467-9935 (20402)

Both legs:

Up$41.354.5¢+$8.74

Down$30.6148¢-$8.92

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$31.78

Value

$27.33

PnL

-$4.45

Record

49%

80904-84349 (165253)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.7

Value

$26.68

PnL

+$0.98

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$23.32

Value

$21.63

PnL

-$1.69

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.7

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.7

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.86

Value

$18.88

PnL

-$1.98

Record

61%

98537-62529 (161066)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.55

Record

61%

46036-29200 (75236)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.35

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$4.55

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$0.44

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.25

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

30%

12152-28123 (40275)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.06

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.16

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Up 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$173.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

273.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.