Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 86¢ · $819 held · ends Nov 6

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

Total Value

$819.18

Combined PnL

-$51.31

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 85.5¢

+12% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$796.48

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL-$51.91

Up3 traders

Total Value$22.7

Total Shares120

Combined PnL+$0.6

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 73.5¢	$267.63	$182.09	-$85.54	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 73.3¢	$143.71	$155.03	+$11.33	51% 10467-9935 (20402)
pspspsps5	Downavg 84¢	$140.89	$150.16	+$9.27	45% 40037-47965 (88002)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 78.4¢	$135.81	$138.45	+$2.63	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$78.32	$85.03	+$6.71	49% 80904-84349 (165253)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$28.52	$33.3	+$4.78	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$31.53	$33.28	+$1.75	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$9.5	$9.75	+$0.25	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$9	$9.25	+$0.25	74% 105030-37065 (142095)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$10.14	$7.5	-$2.64	30% 12152-28123 (40275)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$14.09	$6.02	-$0.07	65% 130170-70085 (200255)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 89¢	$5.75	$5.63	-$0.13	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.7	+$0.1	61% 46036-29200 (75236)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$267.63

Value

$182.09

PnL

-$85.54

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$143.71

Value

$155.03

PnL

+$11.33

Record

51%

10467-9935 (20402)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$140.89

Value

$150.16

PnL

+$9.27

Record

45%

40037-47965 (88002)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$135.81

Value

$138.45

PnL

+$2.63

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$78.32

Value

$85.03

PnL

+$6.71

Record

49%

80904-84349 (165253)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$28.52

Value

$33.3

PnL

+$4.78

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$31.53

Value

$33.28

PnL

+$1.75

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

74%

105030-37065 (142095)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$10.14

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$2.64

Record

30%

12152-28123 (40275)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$14.09

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

65%

130170-70085 (200255)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

61%

46036-29200 (75236)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.3%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.