Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Down 58%
$332.68
-$93.55
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 79.1¢ | $140.13 | $124.8 | -$15.33 | 48% 4685-5102 (9787) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 80.8¢ | $116.61 | $112.79 | -$3.82 | 52% 8826-8271 (17097) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.2¢ | $73.66 | $75 | +$1.34 | 93% 24866-1838 (26704) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $34.05 | — | -$34.05 | 51% 10167-9750 (19917) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 87.4¢ | $14.46 | $12.09 | -$2.37 | 66% 127863-65778 (193641) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $9.75 | — | -$9.75 | 64% 25897-14422 (40319) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $8.96 | $8 | -$0.96 | 61% 96578-60871 (157449) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 57% 72544-55201 (127745) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 8.9¢ | $9.42 | — | -$9.42 | 46% 38885-46080 (84965) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 7.3¢ | $6.53 | — | -$6.53 | 49% 78739-82359 (161098) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 35% 19300-36356 (55656) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.1¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 54% 46586-38972 (85558) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20517-19606 (40123) |
Invested
$140.13
Value
$124.8
PnL
-$15.33
Record
48%
4685-5102 (9787)
Invested
$116.61
Value
$112.79
PnL
-$3.82
Record
52%
8826-8271 (17097)
Invested
$73.66
Value
$75
PnL
+$1.34
Record
93%
24866-1838 (26704)
Invested
$34.05
Value
—
PnL
-$34.05
Record
51%
10167-9750 (19917)
Invested
$14.46
Value
$12.09
PnL
-$2.37
Record
66%
127863-65778 (193641)
Invested
$9.75
Value
—
PnL
-$9.75
Record
64%
25897-14422 (40319)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$8
PnL
-$0.96
Record
61%
96578-60871 (157449)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
57%
72544-55201 (127745)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$9.42
Value
—
PnL
-$9.42
Record
46%
38885-46080 (84965)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.53
Value
—
PnL
-$6.53
Record
49%
78739-82359 (161098)
Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
35%
19300-36356 (55656)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
54%
46586-38972 (85558)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20517-19606 (40123)