Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 56¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 9

Up45¢Down55¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

Total Value

$63

Combined PnL

$0.63

Research grade

NeutralDown at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up45%

Down56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$52.5

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$1.25

Down3 traders

Total Value$10.5

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.62

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$49	$50	+$1	42% 228-318 (546)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 55¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	55% 331-270 (601)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 52¢	$2.88	$2.77	-$0.11	54% 309-268 (577)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52¢	$2.84	$2.73	-$0.11	46% 178-207 (385)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.5	+$0.25	56% 329-262 (591)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$50

PnL

+$1

Record

42%

228-318 (546)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

331-270 (601)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$0.11

Record

54%

309-268 (577)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$2.84

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.11

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

329-262 (591)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.