Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $404 held · ends Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$404.27

Combined PnL

$4.19

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$369.58

Total Shares417

Combined PnL-$2.02

Down2 traders

Total Value$34.69

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$6.2

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$286.79	$288.24	+$1.45	98% 608-10 (618)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 27.2¢	$40.55	$32.63	+$5.62	56% 329-262 (591)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 49¢	$28.42	$29	+$0.58	48% 275-301 (576)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$29.79	$28.92	-$0.87	54% 309-268 (577)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 86.4¢	$26.59	$23.42	-$3.18	55% 331-270 (601)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$1.49	$2.07	+$0.58	42% 228-318 (546)

hoodquant

Invested

$286.79

Value

$288.24

PnL

+$1.45

Record

98%

608-10 (618)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.55

Value

$32.63

PnL

+$5.62

Record

56%

329-262 (591)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.42

Value

$29

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

275-301 (576)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$28.92

PnL

-$0.87

Record

54%

309-268 (577)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$26.59

Value

$23.42

PnL

-$3.18

Record

55%

331-270 (601)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.49

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.58

Record

42%

228-318 (546)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.