Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$24.8

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,472

Combined PnL+$67.61

Up4 traders

Total Value$34.83

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$42.81

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74.3¢	$892.49	$832.03	-$60.45	54% 309-268 (577)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 54.1¢	$206.17	$333.53	+$127.36	42% 228-318 (546)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 60.9¢	$117.13	$119.99	+$3.16	56% 329-262 (591)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$114.45	$115.03	+$0.59	98% 608-10 (618)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$59.05	$55.62	-$3.43	55% 331-270 (601)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$28.09	$25.4	-$2.69	46% 138-162 (300)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$9.5	$9.08	-$0.42	46% 178-207 (385)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 81¢	$4.76	$5.15	+$0.38	39% 196-309 (505)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$0.56	$0.32	-$0.24	39% 149-238 (387)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$39.48	$0.03	-$39.45	45% 212-258 (470)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$892.49

Value

$832.03

PnL

-$60.45

Record

54%

309-268 (577)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$206.17

Value

$333.53

PnL

+$127.36

Record

42%

228-318 (546)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$117.13

Value

$119.99

PnL

+$3.16

Record

56%

329-262 (591)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$114.45

Value

$115.03

PnL

+$0.59

Record

98%

608-10 (618)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$59.05

Value

$55.62

PnL

-$3.43

Record

55%

331-270 (601)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$28.09

Value

$25.4

PnL

-$2.69

Record

46%

138-162 (300)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$0.42

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.38

Record

39%

196-309 (505)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

149-238 (387)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$39.48

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$39.45

Record

45%

212-258 (470)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.