Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$135.91

Smart Money Entry

27.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$216.06

Total Shares231

Combined PnL-$30.33

Down4 traders

Total Value$16.2

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$105.57

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$380	+$130
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$120	-$130
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$377.5	+$127.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$122.5	-$127.5
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 87¢	$144	$100.1	-$40.98	45% 212-258 (470)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 80.2¢	$73.31	$72.41	-$0.9	55% 331-270 (601)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 49¢	$23.23	$34.6	+$11.38	46% 138-162 (300)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 22.1¢	$14.01	$15.76	+$1.75	46% 178-207 (385)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97.7¢	$8.79	$8.95	+$0.16	98% 608-10 (618)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.24	-$0.01	39% 149-235 (384)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 28.2¢	$103.91	$0.18	-$103.73	42% 228-318 (546)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$3.6	$0.01	-$3.59	56% 329-262 (591)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$130

Down$25050¢-$130

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$127.5

Down$25050¢-$127.5

uninformedfloww

Invested

$144

Value

$100.1

PnL

-$40.98

Record

45%

212-258 (470)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$73.31

Value

$72.41

PnL

-$0.9

Record

55%

331-270 (601)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$23.23

Value

$34.6

PnL

+$11.38

Record

46%

138-162 (300)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.01

Value

$15.76

PnL

+$1.75

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$0.16

Record

98%

608-10 (618)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.01

Record

39%

149-235 (384)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$103.91

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$103.73

Record

42%

228-318 (546)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.59

Record

56%

329-262 (591)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.