Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 50¢ · $92 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 80%
$92.28
$0.88
Research grade
NeutralUp at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 72.1¢ | $48.35 | $52.83 | +$4.49 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $22.73 | $28.74 | +$6.01 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $8.1 | $5.05 | -$3.05 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 22.5¢ | $7.62 | $3.13 | -$4.49 | 64% 58907-33468 (92375) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $2.53 | -$2.07 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
Invested
$48.35
Value
$52.83
PnL
+$4.49
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Invested
$22.73
Value
$28.74
PnL
+$6.01
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$3.05
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$7.62
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$4.49
Record
64%
58907-33468 (92375)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$2.07
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.