Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $407 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$407.26

Combined PnL

$53.08

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 100¢

+142% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$307.16

Total Shares371

Combined PnL+$64.5

Down3 traders

Total Value$8.97

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$11.42

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 51.1¢	$114.25	$116.17	+$1.92	51% 8411-7930 (16341)
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 36.9¢	$74.26	$110.89	+$36.63	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$66.28	$91.14	+$24.86	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$27.48	$70.78	+$43.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$38.79	$20.36	-$18.43
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 39¢	$23.1	$42.55	+$19.45	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 47¢	$9.4	$10.1	+$0.7	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$19.3	$7.68	-$11.62	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 44.9¢	$9.56	$7.57	-$1.99	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 21.2¢	$18.67	$7.18	+$7.19	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 44¢	$5.28	$5.46	+$0.18	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 24.8¢	$4.82	$4.96	+$0.14	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2	$2.28	+$0.27	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.01	-$0.03	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.28	+$0.23	65% 112572-59423 (171995)

ply-pm2

Invested

$114.25

Value

$116.17

PnL

+$1.92

Record

51%

8411-7930 (16341)

tmsd-test

Invested

$74.26

Value

$110.89

PnL

+$36.63

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$66.28

Value

$91.14

PnL

+$24.86

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

Both legs:

Up$27.4830.1¢+$43.29

Down$38.7942.9¢-$18.43

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$42.55

PnL

+$19.45

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.3

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$11.62

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$9.56

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$1.99

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$18.67

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$7.19

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.14

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.27

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.23

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.