Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$167.95
-$5.26
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $77.21 | $76.23 | -$0.98 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $30.28 | $76.23 | +$45.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.2¢ | $46.93 | — | -$46.93 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $40.4 | $42.5 | +$2.1 | 64% 58907-33468 (92375) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $17.76 | — | -$17.76 | 58% 38498-27579 (66077) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $5.79 | $13.8 | +$8.01 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $7.2 | $16 | +$8.8 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $3.67 | $6.31 | +$2.64 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $5.11 | $13.11 | +$8 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $18.42 | — | -$17.05 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20375-19462 (39837) |
Invested
$77.21
Value
$76.23
PnL
-$0.98
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$40.4
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$2.1
Record
64%
58907-33468 (92375)
Invested
$17.76
Value
—
PnL
-$17.76
Record
58%
38498-27579 (66077)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$13.8
PnL
+$8.01
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$16
PnL
+$8.8
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$6.31
PnL
+$2.64
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$5.11
Value
$13.11
PnL
+$8
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
Invested
$18.42
Value
—
PnL
-$17.05
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20375-19462 (39837)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $42.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $13.8
ohioism
Down — $16
dvasdkasodk
Down — $6.31
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $13.11
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0