Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (85%) · Up at 100¢ · $235 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

Total Value

$234.94

Combined PnL

$12.09

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$217.34

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$17.75

Down2 traders

Total Value$17.59

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$5.66

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$61.63	$64.06	+$2.43	51% 8411-7930 (16341)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 67.9¢	$35.5	$43.39	+$7.89	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 53.4¢	$31.25	$23.93	+$4.1	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 85¢	$18.46	$20.09	+$1.63	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 86¢	$17.4	$17.7	+$0.3	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$18.26	$12.64	-$5.61	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.89	$10.99	+$0.1	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 49¢	$9.8	$10.1	+$0.3	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 49¢	$9.8	$10.1	+$0.3	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Upavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.75	+$0.35	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 88¢	$5.44	$5.71	+$0.27	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.53	+$0.07	62% 44284-27268 (71552)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$61.63

Value

$64.06

PnL

+$2.43

Record

51%

8411-7930 (16341)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$43.39

PnL

+$7.89

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$31.25

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$4.1

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$18.46

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$1.63

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.26

Value

$12.64

PnL

-$5.61

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.1

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

tmsd-test<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.07

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.