Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $141K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$141.5K

Combined PnL

-$58.33

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$140.9K

Total Shares141,283

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Under7 traders

Total Value$535.73

Total Shares107,410

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 96¢	$55.2K	$55.1K	+$2.1K	89% 91-11 (102)
Malfunction.	Overavg 99.9¢	$41.8K	$41.8K	+$20.9	96% 14627-642 (15269)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 96¢	$41.1K	$40.9K	+$1.4K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 96¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$100.51	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 4¢	$4.2K	$525.05	$-3.7K	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 96.6¢	$1.2K	$140.36	+$4.76	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 96¢	$104.16	$103.64	+$3.65	32% 21107-45346 (66453)
tradecraft<$100	Overavg 95.9¢	$32.07	$31.91	+$1.15	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 4.3¢	$6.17	$3.63	-$2.54	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 3.6¢	$540.88	$2.7	-$16.96	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 3.4¢	$275	$1.38	-$7.87	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 4.1¢	$237.8	$1.19	-$8.56	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$1.18	$0.91	-$0.27	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$19.4	$0.88	-$18.52	45% 14412-17706 (32118)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$55,227.83

Value

$55.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

89%

91-11 (102)

Malfunction.

Over

Invested

$41,761.55

Value

$41.8K

PnL

+$20.9

Record

96%

14627-642 (15269)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$41,106.54

Value

$40.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,868.53

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$100.51

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$4,199.44

Value

$525.05

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,234.43

Value

$140.36

PnL

+$4.76

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$104.16

Value

$103.64

PnL

+$3.65

Record

32%

21107-45346 (66453)

tradecraft<$100

Over

Invested

$32.07

Value

$31.91

PnL

+$1.15

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.17

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$2.54

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$540.88

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$16.96

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$275

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$7.87

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$237.8

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$8.56

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.27

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.4

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$18.52

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.