Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 1.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 100¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares24,533

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares18,731

Combined PnL$-8.0K

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Malfunction.	Overavg 99.9¢	$11.4K	$11.4K	+$5.71	96% 14627-642 (15269)
wesolyjasiu	Overavg 99.9¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$5	99% 2566-22 (2588)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 41.2¢	$145.24	$2.8K	+$1.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
alpheclabs2CTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$460.54	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Underavg 53¢	$500	$250	-$250	48% 4163-4497 (8660)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$754	$200	+$0	56% 193-149 (342)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$148	+$48
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$52	-$48
LI LightParadox	Overavg 42¢	$82.81	$197.07	+$114.26	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 43¢	$27.05	$55.65	+$28.6	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 94¢	$37.6	$39.98	+$2.38	77% 4137-1217 (5354)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$88.73	$25.73	-$23.96	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
PV pvc975<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$5.99	$6	+$0	98% 20123-398 (20521)
RN1CTR	Underavg 54¢	$5.4K	$5	$-5.4K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$5	+$2.8	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 58¢	$271.48	$1.01	$-1.1K	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 55¢	$750.75	$0.68	-$750.07	50% 1560-1566 (3126)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$5	$0	-$5	32% 21107-45346 (66453)

Malfunction.

Over

Invested

$11,411.52

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$5.71

Record

96%

14627-642 (15269)

wesolyjasiu

Over

Invested

$9,990

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$5

Record

99%

2566-22 (2588)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$145.24

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

alpheclabs2CTR

Under

Invested

$1,601.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$460.54

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

NotradecopyCTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$250

PnL

-$250

Record

48%

4163-4497 (8660)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$754

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

Both legs:

Invested

$82.81

Value

$197.07

PnL

+$114.26

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$27.05

Value

$55.65

PnL

+$28.6

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$37.6

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$2.38

Record

77%

4137-1217 (5354)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.73

Value

$25.73

PnL

-$23.96

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

pvc975<$100

Over

Invested

$5.99

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

20123-398 (20521)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$5,400

Value

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

+$2.8

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$271.48

Value

$1.01

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$750.75

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$750.07

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

-$5

Record

32%

21107-45346 (66453)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.