Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Newcastle United FC (45%) · Newcastle United FC at 75¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Fulham FC25¢Newcastle United FC75¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Newcastle United FC

Consensus Traders

Newcastle United FC 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$45.16

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 75¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNewcastle United FC at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Newcastle United FC

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Fulham FC25%

Newcastle United FC75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Newcastle United FC5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,861

Combined PnL-$61.29

Fulham FC6 traders

Total Value$278.41

Total Shares1,114

Combined PnL+$106.45

Newcastle United FC — 45%Fulham FC — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Newcastle United FCavg 89¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$49.8	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 98¢	$1.1K	$1,000	-$120	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Newcastle United FC leg	Newcastle United FCavg 98¢	$980	$750	-$230
└ Fulham FC leg	Fulham FCavg 14¢	$140	$250	+$110
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 89.8¢	$275.82	$202.83	-$7.6	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Newcastle United FC leg	Newcastle United FCavg 89.8¢	$180.38	$150.72	-$23.57
└ Fulham FC leg	Fulham FCavg 17.3¢	$36.15	$52.11	+$15.97
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Fulham FCavg 24¢	$88.31	$91.99	+$3.68	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Fulham FCavg 8¢	$24.07	$75.02	+$50.95	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
RN1CTR<$100	Fulham FCavg 1¢	$1.9	$48	+$46.1	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GH ghorrock<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 73.7¢	$43.16	$44.34	+$1.18	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PE pelik<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 99.9¢	$51.08	$38.35	-$12.73	99% 5182-74 (5256)
PA Pan9X<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 86.9¢	$49.94	$29.75	+$0.8	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Fulham FCavg 24¢	$27.12	$28.25	+$1.13	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Fulham FCavg 20¢	$22	$27.5	+$5.5	56% 1161-902 (2063)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Fulham FCavg 28¢	$8.57	$7.66	-$0.92	57% 2487-1893 (4380)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 90¢	$4.42	$3.68	-$0.74	33% 20011-40834 (60845)

Flaznorp

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$2,529.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$49.8

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$1,120

Value

$1,000

PnL

-$120

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Newcastle United FC$98098¢-$230

Fulham FC$14014¢+$110

38791873984189ARB<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$275.82

Value

$202.83

PnL

-$7.6

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Newcastle United FC$180.3889.8¢-$23.57

Fulham FC$36.1517.3¢+$15.97

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$88.31

Value

$91.99

PnL

+$3.68

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$24.07

Value

$75.02

PnL

+$50.95

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

RN1CTR<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$1.9

Value

$48

PnL

+$46.1

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ghorrock<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$43.16

Value

$44.34

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

pelik<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$51.08

Value

$38.35

PnL

-$12.73

Record

99%

5182-74 (5256)

Pan9X<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$49.94

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$27.12

Value

$28.25

PnL

+$1.13

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$22

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

56%

1161-902 (2063)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$8.57

Value

$7.66

PnL

-$0.92

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$4.42

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.74

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Research grade

NeutralNewcastle United FC at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Newcastle United FC

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Newcastle United FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.