Consensus PnL $82K · win rate 99% (4189–15, n=4204) · PM monthly #386 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$81.7K
Record
4189W / 15L
Win Rate
99.0%
of 4204 settled
Batting Avg
61.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#98
Source
PM monthly #386
Record (90 d)
3946/3952 · 99%
Trades
2,996
Markets
4,392
Volume
$17.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $200K · now 82¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (42% of 84)
Specialties
3,061 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 100¢- Finance
+9 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +2%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 97¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 50% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 3056)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.