AFC Wimbledon vs. Blackpool FC: O/U 2.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 100¢

+117% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,860

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over8 traders

Total Value$952.98

Total Shares1,751

Combined PnL-$1.01

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MaoZeDonK	Underavg 44.1¢	$1,000	$2.3K	+$1.3K	56% 35-28 (63)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$342.98	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.8¢	$424.28	$773.95	+$349.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.7¢	$1.0K	$315.42	-$692.65
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 57.1¢	$2.2K	$677.55	$-1.5K	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.1¢	$2.0K	$470.38	$-1.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.4¢	$173.52	$207.18	+$33.66
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Overavg 57¢	$467.02	$507.99	+$40.97	40% 117-177 (294)
LI Limousin	Underavg 32.3¢	$117.41	$363.15	+$245.74	36% 933-1644 (2577)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 57.5¢	$288.09	$249.31	+$19.2	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 55¢	$110	$124	+$14	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$111.27	$111.32	+$0.06	99% 337-5 (342)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Underavg 93.5¢	$74.8	$79.96	+$5.16	76% 235-76 (311)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$33.63	$36.58	+$2.95	48% 286-306 (592)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$13.06	$15.87	+$2.82	56% 463-370 (833)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 64¢	$14.72	$14.26	-$0.46	40% 137-209 (346)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 42.8¢	$9.84	$8.74	-$1.1	36% 948-1669 (2617)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$3.25	$4.86	+$1.61	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3.09	$3.91	+$0.82	37% 960-1662 (2622)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.9	+$0.65	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$77.95	$0.11	-$82.1	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

MaoZeDonK

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

35-28 (63)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,432.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$342.98

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Both legs:

Under$424.2845.8¢+$349.67

Over$1,008.0752.7¢-$692.65

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,161.57

Value

$677.55

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Over$1,988.0557.1¢$-1.5K

Under$173.5272.4¢+$33.66

mouzsynapseCTR

Over

Invested

$467.02

Value

$507.99

PnL

+$40.97

Record

40%

117-177 (294)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$117.41

Value

$363.15

PnL

+$245.74

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$288.09

Value

$249.31

PnL

+$19.2

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$110

Value

$124

PnL

+$14

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$111.27

Value

$111.32

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

337-5 (342)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Under

Invested

$74.8

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$5.16

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.63

Value

$36.58

PnL

+$2.95

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.06

Value

$15.87

PnL

+$2.82

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.72

Value

$14.26

PnL

-$0.46

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$9.84

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$1.1

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$1.61

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$0.82

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.95

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$82.1

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.