Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (75%) · Vitality at 57¢ · $97K held · ends Nov 11

Vitality57¢Team Falcons43¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 75%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$96.9K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 57.5¢

-14% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

15 of 20 top traders (75%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality57%

Team Falcons43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons5 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares37,878

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Vitality15 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares22,093

Combined PnL+$503.09

Team Falcons — 25%Vitality — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperVitality 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrVitality 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Vitalityavg 72.5¢	$35.5K	$34.3K	$-1.2K	63% 45-26 (71)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 72.5¢	$28.0K	$22.2K	$-5.8K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 26.4¢	$7.5K	$12.1K	+$4.6K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 72.1¢	$11.4K	$11.8K	+$421.6	56% 3827-2993 (6820)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 72.1¢	$8.1K	$7.7K	-$407.24
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 25.1¢	$3.3K	$4.1K	+$828.83
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Team Falconsavg 29.7¢	$4.8K	$6.9K	+$2.1K	1% 2-200 (202)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100	Vitalityavg 69.5¢	$6.4K	$5.8K	+$242.73	46% 890-1056 (1946)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 69.5¢	$4.7K	$4.1K	-$614.39
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 24.1¢	$1.0K	$1.7K	+$857.12
vtcchampion52CTR	Team Falconsavg 28.8¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.2K	48% 844-900 (1744)
GT gt7238ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 70¢	$4.6K	$4.0K	-$134.21	3% 13-447 (460)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 70¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$549.1
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 31¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$414.89
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	Team Falconsavg 27¢	$2.2K	$3.3K	+$1.0K	0% 0-47 (47)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Vitalityavg 69.7¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$468.85	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 69.7¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$345.49
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 20.6¢	$762.41	$1.6K	+$814.34
FR frohp5	Vitalityavg 67.9¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$414.09	60% 1220-803 (2023)
minji	Vitalityavg 62.6¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$217.85	— 2-2 (4)
CA calculate10	Vitalityavg 62.6¢	$4.7K	$2.4K	+$740.27	22% 24-86 (110)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 70.6¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$457.49	26% 162-456 (618)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 21¢	$667.61	$1.3K	+$630.61
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 70.6¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$173.12
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 70.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$44.49	47% 52-59 (111)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 70.7¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$96.38
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 29.5¢	$383.15	$435.04	+$51.89
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Vitalityavg 65.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$87.87	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 65.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$20.02
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 27.4¢	$302.64	$370.5	+$67.86
JO JokerTheClown	Vitalityavg 70¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$375	0% 0-188 (188)
10 10scat	Vitalityavg 69.9¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$201.84	2% 12-513 (525)
0xheavy888	Vitalityavg 72.1¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$272.01	57% 145-111 (256)
RE reykreykCTR	Team Falconsavg 36¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$120.4	— 1-9 (10)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Vitalityavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$116.13	1% 4-288 (292)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 68.9¢	$1.2K	$850.85	-$29.1	19% 115-478 (593)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 68.9¢	$691.26	$576.72	-$109.73
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$193.5	$274.13	+$80.63
DamwonChampions2026	Vitalityavg 62.7¢	$714.02	$654.6	-$59.42	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Vitalityavg 65¢	$232.74	$216.63	-$16.11	51% 3682-3522 (7204)
WH white-rabbit	Vitalityavg 71.7¢	$265.38	$212.86	-$52.52	2% 1-65 (66)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Vitalityavg 69¢	$159.99	$186.65	+$26.67	17% 81-386 (467)
PA panpidaras1<$100	Vitalityavg 73¢	$38.09	$35.74	-$2.35	5% 14-261 (275)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$35,489.14

Value

$34.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

63%

45-26 (71)

Both legs:

Vitality$27,998.9672.5¢$-5.8K

Team Falcons$7,490.1826.4¢+$4.6K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$11,379.59

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$421.6

Record

56%

3827-2993 (6820)

Both legs:

Vitality$8,121.6972.1¢-$407.24

Team Falcons$3,257.8925.1¢+$828.83

lllllllIlllCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$4,799.75

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

2-200 (202)

fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$6,368.39

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$242.73

Record

46%

890-1056 (1946)

Both legs:

Vitality$4,728.3969.5¢-$614.39

Team Falcons$1,026.3624.1¢+$857.12

vtcchampion52CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,635.28

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

844-900 (1744)

gt7238ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$4,621.05

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$134.21

Record

13-447 (460)

Both legs:

Vitality$3,03870¢-$549.1

Team Falcons$1,121.0531¢+$414.89

fengdubisheng117CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,246.41

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

0-47 (47)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$2,742.66

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$468.85

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Both legs:

Vitality$1,980.2569.7¢-$345.49

Team Falcons$762.4120.6¢+$814.34

frohp5

Vitality

Invested

$2,222

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$414.09

Record

60%

1220-803 (2023)

minji

Vitality

Invested

$2,660.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$217.85

Record

—

2-2 (4)

calculate10

Vitality

Invested

$4,657.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$740.27

Record

22%

24-86 (110)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,968.19

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$457.49

Record

26%

162-456 (618)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$667.6121¢+$630.61

Vitality$1,21070.6¢-$173.12

319113331313111ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,995.66

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$44.49

Record

47%

52-59 (111)

Both legs:

Vitality$1,612.5170.7¢-$96.38

Team Falcons$383.1529.5¢+$51.89

takeormakeARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,691.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$87.87

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Both legs:

Vitality$1,389.1265.6¢+$20.02

Team Falcons$302.6427.4¢+$67.86

JokerTheClown

Vitality

Invested

$2,099.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$375

Record

0-188 (188)

10scat

Vitality

Invested

$1,333.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$201.84

Record

12-513 (525)

0xheavy888

Vitality

Invested

$1,688.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$272.01

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

reykreykCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,238.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$120.4

Record

—

1-9 (10)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Vitality

Invested

$1,161.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$116.13

Record

4-288 (292)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,191.45

Value

$850.85

PnL

-$29.1

Record

19%

115-478 (593)

Both legs:

Vitality$691.2668.9¢-$109.73

Team Falcons$193.530¢+$80.63

DamwonChampions2026

Vitality

Invested

$714.02

Value

$654.6

PnL

-$59.42

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Vitality

Invested

$232.74

Value

$216.63

PnL

-$16.11

Record

51%

3682-3522 (7204)

white-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$265.38

Value

$212.86

PnL

-$52.52

Record

1-65 (66)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Vitality

Invested

$159.99

Value

$186.65

PnL

+$26.67

Record

17%

81-386 (467)

panpidaras1<$100

Vitality

Invested

$38.09

Value

$35.74

PnL

-$2.35

Record

14-261 (275)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

15 of 20 top traders (75%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperVitality 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrVitality 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.