Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner

28 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (72%) · FURIA at 97¢ · $174K held · ends Nov 11

Legacy3¢FURIA97¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$173.8K

Combined PnL

$27.7K

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 97.4¢

+47% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

28 of 39 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Legacy3%

FURIA97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA28 traders

Total Value$126.2K

Total Shares130,729

Combined PnL+$35.0K

Legacy11 traders

Total Value$45.6K

Total Shares148,779

Combined PnL$-7.3K

FURIA — 72%Legacy — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788	FURIAavg 64¢	$26.0K	$39.4K	+$13.4K	42% 102-141 (243)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Legacyavg 35¢	$35.5K	$31.1K	$-4.5K	51% 3680-3512 (7192)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	FURIAavg 68.5¢	$12.1K	$13.5K	+$1.4K	64% 43-24 (67)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	FURIAavg 65¢	$13.0K	$11.8K	+$4.3K	52% 1346-1231 (2577)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258CTR	Legacyavg 36¢	$10.8K	$11.3K	+$450	— 0-1 (1)
FK fkALG2FalconsTES	FURIAavg 65.4¢	$6.1K	$9.0K	+$2.9K	46% 890-1055 (1945)
minji	FURIAavg 64.7¢	$5.2K	$7.8K	+$2.6K	— 2-1 (3)
DamwonChampions2026	FURIAavg 64.8¢	$5.2K	$7.8K	+$2.6K	— 2-1 (3)
0xheavy888	FURIAavg 64.8¢	$5.5K	$7.0K	+$2.1K	55% 120-97 (217)
RE reykreyk	FURIAavg 65¢	$3.1K	$4.7K	+$1.5K	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	FURIAavg 80.9¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$680.56	9% 12-122 (134)
vtcchampion52	FURIAavg 69¢	$2.8K	$3.9K	+$1.2K	48% 844-900 (1744)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	FURIAavg 70.2¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$478.5	56% 3822-2987 (6809)
latvian.demon	FURIAavg 63¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$763.88	2% 10-428 (438)
WE westing.v1	FURIAavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$596.53	5% 3-62 (65)
BI BillBenter2026	FURIAavg 69.5¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$283.99	19% 108-475 (583)
SC Scrip-scripARB<$100	FURIAavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$48.17	— 0-8 (8)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 61¢	$979.62	$987.65	+$8.03
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 36¢	$578.03	$618.17	+$40.14
FR frohp5	FURIAavg 70.7¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$410.38	60% 1218-803 (2021)
RI Richidd	FURIAavg 66.4¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	+$344.45	51% 75-71 (146)
RR rrooster	FURIAavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$70	36% 15-27 (42)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	Legacyavg 37¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$17.5	— 1-7 (8)
forsenxdCTR	Legacyavg 36¢	$881.51	$918.24	+$36.73	49% 353-371 (724)
31 319113331313111	FURIAavg 81.3¢	$801.76	$720.32	-$81.45	46% 49-58 (107)
10 10scat	FURIAavg 70¢	$666.6	$661.84	-$4.76	2% 10-513 (523)
JU JuiceFarm	FURIAavg 61¢	$610	$630	+$20	— 10-6 (16)

fantasy7788

FURIA

Invested

$26,000

Value

$39.4K

PnL

+$13.4K

Record

42%

102-141 (243)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Legacy

Invested

$35,526.48

Value

$31.1K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

51%

3680-3512 (7192)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

FURIA

Invested

$12,112.39

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

64%

43-24 (67)

THEHIGHLIFE

FURIA

Invested

$13,000

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

52%

1346-1231 (2577)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258CTR

Legacy

Invested

$10,800

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$450

Record

—

0-1 (1)

fkALG2FalconsTES

FURIA

Invested

$6,102.29

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

46%

890-1055 (1945)

minji

FURIA

Invested

$5,172.79

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

—

2-1 (3)

DamwonChampions2026

FURIA

Invested

$5,180

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0xheavy888

FURIA

Invested

$5,478.42

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

reykreyk

FURIA

Invested

$3,120

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

FURIA

Invested

$3,357.94

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$680.56

Record

12-122 (134)

vtcchampion52

FURIA

Invested

$2,771.11

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

844-900 (1744)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

FURIA

Invested

$4,074.03

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$478.5

Record

56%

3822-2987 (6809)

latvian.demon

FURIA

Invested

$1,417.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$763.88

Record

10-428 (438)

westing.v1

FURIA

Invested

$1,215.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$596.53

Record

3-62 (65)

BillBenter2026

FURIA

Invested

$1,446.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$283.99

Record

19%

108-475 (583)

Scrip-scripARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1,557.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$48.17

Record

—

0-8 (8)

Both legs:

FURIA$979.6261¢+$8.03

Legacy$578.0336¢+$40.14

frohp5

FURIA

Invested

$1,111

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$410.38

Record

60%

1218-803 (2021)

Richidd

FURIA

Invested

$2,200

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$344.45

Record

51%

75-71 (146)

rrooster

FURIA

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$70

Record

36%

15-27 (42)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

Legacy

Invested

$1,295

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

—

1-7 (8)

forsenxdCTR

Legacy

Invested

$881.51

Value

$918.24

PnL

+$36.73

Record

49%

353-371 (724)

319113331313111

FURIA

Invested

$801.76

Value

$720.32

PnL

-$81.45

Record

46%

49-58 (107)

10scat

FURIA

Invested

$666.6

Value

$661.84

PnL

-$4.76

Record

10-513 (523)

JuiceFarm

FURIA

Invested

$610

Value

$630

PnL

+$20

Record

—

10-6 (16)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

28 of 39 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.