Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

31 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (54%) · Team Falcons at 62¢ · $232K held · ends Nov 14

FURIA39¢Team Falcons61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$231.8K

Combined PnL

$9.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 61.5¢

+15% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

31 of 57 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA39%

Team Falcons62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons31 traders

Total Value$175.8K

Total Shares297,288

Combined PnL+$13.8K

FURIA26 traders

Total Value$46.6K

Total Shares104,919

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Team Falcons — 54%FURIA — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511	Team Falconsavg 63.4¢	$39.9K	$29.3K	$-1.7K	60% 707-480 (1187)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Team Falconsavg 47¢	$27.1K	$27.4K	+$287.97	51% 3868-3649 (7517)
FA fantasy7788	Team Falconsavg 47.3¢	$19.0K	$27.1K	+$8.1K	43% 116-152 (268)
0xheavy888	Team Falconsavg 59.8¢	$10.8K	$11.1K	+$315	54% 491-416 (907)
SU SuperMegaMan	Team Falconsavg 48¢	$7.2K	$9.2K	+$2.0K	49% 625-641 (1266)
YI yishiwucheng	Team Falconsavg 53.7¢	$8.7K	$9.1K	+$380.43	58% 85-62 (147)
DamwonChampions2026	Team Falconsavg 60.1¢	$8.8K	$9.0K	+$206.21	64% 23-13 (36)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	FURIAavg 53.7¢	$9.1K	$8.4K	-$711.37	15% 23-128 (151)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 58.2¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	-$2.18	56% 4056-3166 (7222)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 58.2¢	$4.8K	$5.1K	+$274.71
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 43¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$276.89
minji	Team Falconsavg 61¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$60	57% 21-16 (37)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Team Falconsavg 46.8¢	$5.1K	$6.8K	+$1.7K	51% 748-716 (1464)
RE redvinny	Team Falconsavg 65.7¢	$13.8K	$6.6K	-$51.86	26% 47-137 (184)
BR Brz4629CTR	FURIAavg 45.3¢	$6.8K	$5.8K	$-1.0K	70% 28-12 (40)
dodsterbotCTR	FURIAavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$50	45% 510-616 (1126)
CR crmannetjeCTR	FURIAavg 54.6¢	$5.5K	$4.6K	-$811.14	10% 3-26 (29)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Team Falconsavg 61.8¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$22.26	46% 133-155 (288)
forsenxdCTR	FURIAavg 53¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$156.71	49% 373-396 (769)
SU suntoriCTR	FURIAavg 42.5¢	$4.8K	$4.3K	-$516.83	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
0X 0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723	Team Falconsavg 47¢	$3.3K	$3.9K	+$661.51	— 4-6 (10)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESMOUZ	Team Falconsavg 45¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$37.86	46% 903-1071 (1974)
latvian.demon	Team Falconsavg 46¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$450	12% 61-456 (517)
WE weeeskies	Team Falconsavg 45.8¢	$2.4K	$3.2K	+$818.54	43% 12-16 (28)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	Team Falconsavg 63.6¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$165.32	18% 31-138 (169)
EZ EzmoneyfornowCTR	FURIAavg 47¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$595	47% 18-20 (38)
RR rrooster	Team Falconsavg 45¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$28.79	48% 48-51 (99)

lonmi2511

Team Falcons

Invested

$39,907.52

Value

$29.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

60%

707-480 (1187)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Team Falcons

Invested

$27,069.39

Value

$27.4K

PnL

+$287.97

Record

51%

3868-3649 (7517)

fantasy7788

Team Falcons

Invested

$19,000

Value

$27.1K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

43%

116-152 (268)

0xheavy888

Team Falcons

Invested

$10,755

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$315

Record

54%

491-416 (907)

SuperMegaMan

Team Falcons

Invested

$7,200

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

625-641 (1266)

yishiwucheng

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,712.45

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$380.43

Record

58%

85-62 (147)

DamwonChampions2026

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,808.71

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$206.21

Record

64%

23-13 (36)

ubetteruuuuCTR

FURIA

Invested

$9,126.35

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$711.37

Record

15%

23-128 (151)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$7,473.5

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$2.18

Record

56%

4056-3166 (7222)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$4,829.1558.2¢+$274.71

FURIA$2,644.3543¢-$276.89

minji

Team Falcons

Invested

$7,320

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$60

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Team Falcons

Invested

$5,076.83

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

51%

748-716 (1464)

redvinny

Team Falcons

Invested

$13,810.17

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$51.86

Record

26%

47-137 (184)

Brz4629CTR

FURIA

Invested

$6,777.95

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

70%

28-12 (40)

dodsterbotCTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

45%

510-616 (1126)

crmannetjeCTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,461.13

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$811.14

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Team Falcons

Invested

$4,373.37

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$22.26

Record

46%

133-155 (288)

forsenxdCTR

FURIA

Invested

$4,152.84

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$156.71

Record

49%

373-396 (769)

suntoriCTR

FURIA

Invested

$4,785.96

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$516.83

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,272.72

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$661.51

Record

—

4-6 (10)

fkALG2FalconsTESMOUZ

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,407.42

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$37.86

Record

46%

903-1071 (1974)

latvian.demon

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,759.98

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$450

Record

12%

61-456 (517)

weeeskies

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,390.09

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$818.54

Record

43%

12-16 (28)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

Team Falcons

Invested

$3,340.94

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$165.32

Record

18%

31-138 (169)

EzmoneyfornowCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,290

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$595

Record

47%

18-20 (38)

rrooster

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,591.12

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$28.79

Record

48%

48-51 (99)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

31 of 57 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.