Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)
7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold BetBoom Team (39%) · BetBoom Team at 100¢ · $98K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
BetBoom Team
18
BetBoom Team 39%
$97.6K
$-7.5K
63.9¢ → 100¢
+56% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralBetBoom Team at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA jakepaulthegoat2008 | BetBoom Teamavg 63.2¢ | $42.1K | $66.5K | $-1.0K | 50% 7654-7800 (15454) |
LL lllllllIlllCTR | FURIAavg 37¢ | $14.5K | $14.9K | +$391.86 | 54% 318-273 (591) |
 relativesignificance | BetBoom Teamavg 65.6¢ | $5.9K | $6.3K | +$355.74 | 58% 152-109 (261) |
HL HLEbritni | BetBoom Teamavg 63¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | -$15 | 51% 21-20 (41) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | BetBoom Teamavg 65.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.7K | +$583.52 | 54% 1367-1185 (2552) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | FURIAavg 37¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$76.95 | 55% 239-194 (433) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | FURIAavg 34¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$161.6 | 53% 791-693 (1484) |
PO PourpelNourpelCTR | FURIAavg 38.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$18.39 | 53% 658-583 (1241) |
 Malfunction. | BetBoom Teamavg 99.9¢ | $939.65 | $940.12 | +$0.47 | 96% 12651-576 (13227) |
CR crmannetjeCTR | FURIAavg 37.7¢ | $500 | $404.09 | -$95.91 | 54% 26-22 (48) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | FURIAavg 37¢ | $222 | $228 | +$6 | 51% 1982-1912 (3894) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | FURIAavg 13.5¢ | $885.36 | $187.84 | -$697.52 | 42% 8022-11209 (19231) |
 HomelessnHoeless<$100 | BetBoom Teamavg 61¢ | $47.87 | $78.43 | +$30.57 | 51% 130-124 (254) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | BetBoom Teamavg 69¢ | $40.66 | $58.94 | +$18.27 | 52% 8836-8034 (16870) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | FURIAavg 39.2¢ | $122.9 | $54.47 | -$68.43 | 50% 21340-21623 (42963) |
 forsenxdCTR | FURIAavg 36¢ | $4.2K | $5.83 | $-4.2K | 53% 1113-973 (2086) |
LO lossxCTR | FURIAavg 38.6¢ | $2.4K | $3.12 | $-2.4K | 59% 305-210 (515) |
HO HongweiqianCTR | FURIAavg 39.2¢ | $282 | $2 | -$280 | 50% 289-290 (579) |
Invested
$42,065.18
Value
$66.5K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
50%
7654-7800 (15454)
Invested
$14,498.99
Value
$14.9K
PnL
+$391.86
Record
54%
318-273 (591)
relativesignificanceInvested
$5,932.64
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$355.74
Record
58%
152-109 (261)
Invested
$1,890.24
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$15
Record
51%
21-20 (41)
Invested
$1,092.51
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$583.52
Record
54%
1367-1185 (2552)
Invested
$1,423.38
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$76.95
Record
55%
239-194 (433)
Invested
$1,569.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$161.6
Record
53%
791-693 (1484)
Invested
$1,409.9
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$18.39
Record
53%
658-583 (1241)
Malfunction.Invested
$939.65
Value
$940.12
PnL
+$0.47
Record
96%
12651-576 (13227)
Invested
$500
Value
$404.09
PnL
-$95.91
Record
54%
26-22 (48)
Invested
$222
Value
$228
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
1982-1912 (3894)
Invested
$885.36
Value
$187.84
PnL
-$697.52
Record
42%
8022-11209 (19231)
HomelessnHoeless<$100Invested
$47.87
Value
$78.43
PnL
+$30.57
Record
51%
130-124 (254)
Invested
$40.66
Value
$58.94
PnL
+$18.27
Record
52%
8836-8034 (16870)
Invested
$122.9
Value
$54.47
PnL
-$68.43
Record
50%
21340-21623 (42963)
forsenxdCTRInvested
$4,197.85
Value
$5.83
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
53%
1113-973 (2086)
Invested
$2,404.4
Value
$3.12
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
59%
305-210 (515)
Invested
$282
Value
$2
PnL
-$280
Record
50%
289-290 (579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
jakepaulthegoat2008
BetBoom Team — $66.5K
lllllllIlll
CTRFURIA — $14.9K
relativesignificance
BetBoom Team — $6.3K
HLEbritni
BetBoom Team — $2.0K
TAIWANNUMBERONE
BetBoom Team — $1.7K
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
CTRFURIA — $1.5K
Wiretransferxyz
CTRFURIA — $1.4K
PourpelNourpel
CTRFURIA — $1.4K
Malfunction.
BetBoom Team — $940.12
crmannetje
CTRFURIA — $404.09