Will Mexico win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$12.92

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 68.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$599.35

Total Shares900

Combined PnL+$8.16

No6 traders

Total Value$278.47

Total Shares874

Combined PnL-$21.07

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DanielsDixon	Yesavg 66¢	$516.08	$519.99	+$3.91	21% 16-62 (78)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$224.62	$210.3	-$14.31	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ No leg	Noavg 38.7¢	$165.06	$145	-$20.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.2¢	$59.56	$65.31	+$5.75
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 34¢	$225.64	$209.05	-$16.59	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 65.2¢	$40.09	$42.14	+$2.05	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$31.62	$33.66	+$2.04	56% 462-367 (829)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$26.96	$24.98	-$1.98	36% 945-1666 (2611)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Noavg 37.1¢	$24.1	$22.08	-$2.02	42% 18-25 (43)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$14.11	$14.33	+$0.21	37% 353-603 (956)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$5.19	$4.64	-$0.55	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.41	$3.57	+$0.16	49% 635-674 (1309)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$3.55	$3.4	-$0.15	42% 991-1360 (2351)

DanielsDixon

Yes

Invested

$516.08

Value

$519.99

PnL

+$3.91

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$224.62

Value

$210.3

PnL

-$14.31

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

No$165.0638.7¢-$20.06

Yes$59.5660.2¢+$5.75

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$225.64

Value

$209.05

PnL

-$16.59

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.09

Value

$42.14

PnL

+$2.05

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.62

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$2.04

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$26.96

Value

$24.98

PnL

-$1.98

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

guilttripCTR<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$22.08

PnL

-$2.02

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$14.11

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$0.21

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.19

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.15

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.