Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Penn State, while the market favors Washington (54%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Penn State vs. Washington

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Penn State (57%) · Penn State at 46¢ · $102K held · ended Nov 7

Penn State46¢Washington54¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penn State

Consensus Traders

Penn State 57%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$102.2K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 46¢

-28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenn State at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Washington 54%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penn State46%

Washington54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn State8 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares26,839

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Washington6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,300

Combined PnL-$44.46

Penn State — 57%Washington — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 70.2¢	$39.1K	$42.0K	+$2.9K	48% 405-446 (851)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 27.8¢	$12.7K	$24.7K	+$12.0K
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 70.2¢	$26.4K	$17.3K	$-9.1K
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 62¢	$6.3K	$8.9K	+$2.6K	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 24.4¢	$2.9K	$6.4K	+$3.5K
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 62¢	$3.4K	$2.5K	-$871.69
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Penn Stateavg 59¢	$9.7K	$7.6K	$-2.1K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
RN1ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 86¢	$9.0K	$7.1K	$-1.8K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 86¢	$7.4K	$4.0K	$-3.4K
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 26.8¢	$1.6K	$3.2K	+$1.6K
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 77.7¢	$8.7K	$6.6K	$-2.1K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 77.7¢	$7.3K	$4.3K	$-3.0K
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 33.8¢	$1.4K	$2.3K	+$844.62
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 61.7¢	$4.3K	$5.2K	+$846.14	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 22.2¢	$1.2K	$2.8K	+$1.6K
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 61.7¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$803.44
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 74.8¢	$6.0K	$4.4K	-$798.06	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 74.8¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	$-1.5K
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 33.8¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$687.04
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 75.9¢	$3.5K	$4.0K	+$533.85	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 30.9¢	$1.7K	$2.9K	+$1.2K
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 75.9¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$714.55
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 74.2¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$67.27	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 23.7¢	$850.91	$1.9K	+$1.1K
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 74.2¢	$3.0K	$1.9K	$-1.2K
OJ ojgARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 86.8¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$178.79	43% 838-1096 (1934)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 8.3¢	$240.6	$1.6K	+$1.3K
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 86.8¢	$2.4K	$1.3K	$-1.1K
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 65.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$252.6	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 25.9¢	$491.54	$1.0K	+$531.76
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 65.1¢	$951.68	$672.52	-$279.16
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Penn Stateavg 45¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$33.33	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 84.6¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$744.19	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 84.6¢	$1.8K	$951.47	-$798.98
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 45.8¢	$306.16	$360.95	+$54.79
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Penn Stateavg 80¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$953.96	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Penn Stateavg 89.5¢	$1.5K	$753.37	-$712.14	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Penn Stateavg 82.3¢	$1.1K	$659.32	-$449.23	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
AV averagejoetraders	Washingtonavg 58.7¢	$608.4	$559.95	-$48.45	57% 676-519 (1195)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Washingtonavg 60.7¢	$608.2	$541.45	-$66.75	53% 626-550 (1176)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Penn Stateavg 88.8¢	$989.61	$512.92	-$476.68	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 80.9¢	$1.5K	$384.6	-$155.69	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 80.9¢	$391.51	$222.48	-$198.81
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 22.1¢	$66.26	$162.12	+$43.12
13 13897651ARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 45.7¢	$49.07	$126.66	+$77.58	56% 8963-7033 (15996)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 7.5¢	$12.48	$89.86	+$77.38
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 45.7¢	$36.59	$36.8	+$0.21
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Penn Stateavg 94¢	$119.41	$97.36	-$22.05	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 30.8¢	$30.8	$54	+$23.2
└ Penn State leg	Penn Stateavg 94¢	$88.61	$43.36	-$45.25
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Washingtonavg 12¢	$20	$90	+$70	49% 386-404 (790)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Penn Stateavg 39¢	$57.33	$67.62	+$10.29	66% 173-91 (264)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Washingtonavg 54¢	$31.31	$31.31	+$0	51% 38648-37820 (76468)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$39,135.52

Value

$42.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Both legs:

Washington$12,710.8827.8¢+$12.0K

Penn State$26,424.6470.2¢$-9.1K

takeormakeARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$6,253.93

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Both legs:

Washington$2,882.6724.4¢+$3.5K

Penn State$3,371.2662¢-$871.69

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Penn State

Invested

$9,733.18

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

RN1ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$8,979.6

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Penn State$7,394.3886¢$-3.4K

Washington$1,585.2226.8¢+$1.6K

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$8,739.45

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Penn State$7,326.6477.7¢$-3.0K

Washington$1,412.8233.8¢+$844.62

cm2897ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$4,313.17

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$846.14

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Both legs:

Washington$1,155.5822.2¢+$1.6K

Penn State$3,157.5961.7¢-$803.44

38791873984189ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$6,028.72

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$798.06

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Penn State$3,814.0574.8¢$-1.5K

Washington$1,308.4833.8¢+$687.04

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$3,484.26

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$533.85

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

Both legs:

Washington$1,671.9330.9¢+$1.2K

Penn State$1,812.3375.9¢-$714.55

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$3,892.65

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$67.27

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Washington$850.9123.7¢+$1.1K

Penn State$3,041.7474.2¢$-1.2K

ojgARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$2,661.36

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$178.79

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

Both legs:

Washington$240.68.3¢+$1.3K

Penn State$2,420.7786.8¢$-1.1K

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$1,443.22

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$252.6

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

Washington$491.5425.9¢+$531.76

Penn State$951.6865.1¢-$279.16

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Penn State

Invested

$1,499.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$33.33

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$2,056.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$744.19

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Penn State$1,750.4684.6¢-$798.98

Washington$306.1645.8¢+$54.79

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Penn State

Invested

$2,244.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$953.96

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Penn State

Invested

$1,465.5

Value

$753.37

PnL

-$712.14

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Penn State

Invested

$1,108.55

Value

$659.32

PnL

-$449.23

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

averagejoetraders

Washington

Invested

$608.4

Value

$559.95

PnL

-$48.45

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

oxe78sh4w98

Washington

Invested

$608.2

Value

$541.45

PnL

-$66.75

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Penn State

Invested

$989.61

Value

$512.92

PnL

-$476.68

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Pan9XARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$1,482.33

Value

$384.6

PnL

-$155.69

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Penn State$391.5180.9¢-$198.81

Washington$66.2622.1¢+$43.12

13897651ARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$49.07

Value

$126.66

PnL

+$77.58

Record

56%

8963-7033 (15996)

Both legs:

Washington$12.487.5¢+$77.38

Penn State$36.5945.7¢+$0.21

cigarettesARB<$100

Penn State

Invested

$119.41

Value

$97.36

PnL

-$22.05

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Both legs:

Washington$30.830.8¢+$23.2

Penn State$88.6194¢-$45.25

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Washington

Invested

$20

Value

$90

PnL

+$70

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

biying88888CTR<$100

Penn State

Invested

$57.33

Value

$67.62

PnL

+$10.29

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

SnakeBall<$100

Washington

Invested

$31.31

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Research grade

NeutralPenn State at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Washington 54%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.