Consensus PnL $148K · win rate 90% (592–63, n=655) · PM monthly #351 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$147.7K
Record
592W / 63L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 655 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#254
Source
PM monthly #351
Record (90 d)
85/95 · 89%
Trades
501
Markets
707
Volume
$8.0M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 8 on the consensus side (100%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $76K · now 77¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (82% of 148)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $714 · now 85¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (70% of 72)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $531 · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 197)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $147 · now 70¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (57% of 81)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $77 · now 78¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (62% of 146)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $37 · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (54% of 115)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $7 · now 72¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (58% of 86)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $1 · now 98¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (79% of 73)
Specialties
655 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 93¢- Economy
+7 pts
side won 98% of 45 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +9%
- Other Sports
+5 pts
side won 100% of 33 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +3%
- NFL
+2 pts
side won 96% of 28 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 73% of 26 at an average 87¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 0% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 56% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 96%(won 96% of 629)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.