Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (91%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 9.5¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 9.5¢

-79% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,719

Combined PnL-$252.25

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares6,390

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ARocky33	Overavg 70.3¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$363.16	76% 4552-1417 (5969)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.3K	$697.32	-$586.88	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 42¢	$1.3K	$279.42	$-1.0K	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 58.2¢	$114.67	$179.31	+$64.64	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 69.9¢	$92.53	$122.47	+$29.94	84% 15071-2930 (18001)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 58.1¢	$221.67	$117.31	-$39.96	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$95.07	$55.39	-$39.68	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI Limousin	Overavg 37¢	$143	$55.06	+$2.15	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 59¢	$21.83	$33.67	+$11.84	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 71¢	$30.27	$32.62	+$2.35	75% 1980-673 (2653)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$72.04	$15.81	-$56.23	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$16.86	$3.79	-$13.07	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.05	+$0.02	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$1.74	$0.27	-$1.47	48% 405-446 (851)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$1,522.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$363.16

Record

76%

4552-1417 (5969)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,284.2

Value

$697.32

PnL

-$586.88

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,303.97

Value

$279.42

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$114.67

Value

$179.31

PnL

+$64.64

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$92.53

Value

$122.47

PnL

+$29.94

Record

84%

15071-2930 (18001)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$221.67

Value

$117.31

PnL

-$39.96

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.07

Value

$55.39

PnL

-$39.68

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$143

Value

$55.06

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$21.83

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$11.84

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$30.27

Value

$32.62

PnL

+$2.35

Record

75%

1980-673 (2653)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.04

Value

$15.81

PnL

-$56.23

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.86

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$13.07

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$1.47

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.