RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 7

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$570.24

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 100¢

+57% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares13,619

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Under7 traders

Total Value$110.21

Total Shares14,388

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 62¢	$7.0K	$11.3K	+$4.3K	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 80¢	$853.47	$972.03	+$118.56	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 70.4¢	$517.46	$570.29	+$52.83	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
nigiri99	Overavg 58.3¢	$206.82	$353.23	+$146.4	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 91.4¢	$116.56	$127.52	+$10.96	84% 15071-2930 (18001)
RO Rocky31	Overavg 62.7¢	$103.86	$96.11	-$7.76	75% 1980-673 (2653)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$32.91	$38.65	+$5.74	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 61.7¢	$45.13	$35.82	+$6.28	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 38¢	$2.1K	$27.99	$-2.1K	48% 405-446 (851)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 38¢	$1.9K	$24.96	$-1.9K	49% 299-312 (611)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39.4¢	$823.27	$10.46	-$812.81	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 21¢	$280.59	$6.68	-$273.91	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 40¢	$109.2	$1.37	-$107.84	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$1.98	$0.11	-$1.87	47% 9568-10685 (20253)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$7,048.75

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$853.47

Value

$972.03

PnL

+$118.56

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$517.46

Value

$570.29

PnL

+$52.83

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$206.82

Value

$353.23

PnL

+$146.4

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$116.56

Value

$127.52

PnL

+$10.96

Record

84%

15071-2930 (18001)

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$103.86

Value

$96.11

PnL

-$7.76

Record

75%

1980-673 (2653)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.91

Value

$38.65

PnL

+$5.74

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$45.13

Value

$35.82

PnL

+$6.28

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,127

Value

$27.99

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$1,897.18

Value

$24.96

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$823.27

Value

$10.46

PnL

-$812.81

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$280.59

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$273.91

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$109.2

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$107.84

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.98

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1.87

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.