Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

Resolved No. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$5.88

Smart Money Signal

22 of 26 top traders (85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares15,962

Combined PnL+$478.75

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,193

Combined PnL-$472.87

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Noavg 77¢	$3.3K	$3.0K	-$297.12	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 78.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$359.53	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 83¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$280.22	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
NM NM-P	Noavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.02	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 77.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$3.75	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
AN Anon455	Noavg 85.1¢	$966.78	$1.1K	+$169.62	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
GC GC-P	Noavg 76¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	+$6.27	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.8¢	$948.87	$948.87	+$1.67	98% 20123-398 (20521)
LI Limousin	Noavg 78.6¢	$3.2K	$793.04	-$194.26	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 85.5¢	$714.23	$714.23	+$103.86	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 90.6¢	$965.78	$556.94	+$52.03	57% 2664-2048 (4712)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 88.5¢	$791.3	$478.5	+$53.52	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
dips.	Noavg 98.5¢	$476	$476	+$7.14	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 80.4¢	$613.6	$309.34	+$5.82	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
VE Venusian	Noavg 77¢	$1.2K	$227.43	-$99.14	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$202.8	—	-$202.8	56% 193-149 (342)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.3¢	$200	$200	+$3.4	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Noavg 96.2¢	$171.26	$171.26	+$6.44	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 76¢	$68.51	$68.51	+$16.44	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 86¢	$78.19	$65	-$13.19	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89¢	$123.39	$50	+$0.75	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 92¢	$19.2	$19.2	+$1.54	56% 681-529 (1210)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.89	$10.89	+$0.44	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 16.6¢	$1.4K	—	-$224.52	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$476	—	-$7.14	46% 30563-35669 (66232)

nigiri99

Invested

$3,297.12

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$297.12

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,825.95

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$359.53

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,648.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$280.22

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

NM-P

Invested

$1,191.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.02

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,180.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$3.75

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Anon455

Invested

$966.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$169.62

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

GC-P

Invested

$2,281.18

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.27

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

pvc975

Invested

$948.87

Value

$948.87

PnL

+$1.67

Record

98%

20123-398 (20521)

Limousin

Invested

$3,218.04

Value

$793.04

PnL

-$194.26

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Flaznorp

Invested

$714.23

Value

$714.23

PnL

+$103.86

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$965.78

Value

$556.94

PnL

+$52.03

Record

57%

2664-2048 (4712)

Pan9X

Invested

$791.3

Value

$478.5

PnL

+$53.52

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

dips.

Invested

$476

Value

$476

PnL

+$7.14

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$613.6

Value

$309.34

PnL

+$5.82

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Venusian

Invested

$1,241.23

Value

$227.43

PnL

-$99.14

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$202.8

Value

—

PnL

-$202.8

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

cigarettes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$3.4

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$171.26

Value

$171.26

PnL

+$6.44

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$68.51

Value

$68.51

PnL

+$16.44

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$78.19

Value

$65

PnL

-$13.19

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$123.39

Value

$50

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$1.54

Record

56%

681-529 (1210)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.44

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,350.21

Value

—

PnL

-$224.52

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$476

Value

—

PnL

-$7.14

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 26 top traders (85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xea44ebcc...1ab384

Slug

bun-koe-b04-2026-11-08-draw

Traders in this Market

nigiri99

No — $3.0K

-$297.12

MadridTime

No — $1.8K

+$359.53

GoalLineGhost

No — $1.6K

+$280.22

NM-P

No — $1.2K

+$10.02

LightParadox

No — $1.2K

+$3.75

Anon455

No — $1.1K

+$169.62

GC-P

No — $1.0K

+$6.27

pvc975

No — $948.87

+$1.67

Limousin

No — $793.04

-$194.26

Flaznorp

No — $714.23

+$103.86

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