Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

24 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

$806.49

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 31 top traders (77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares17,317

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down7 traders

Total Value$6.24

Total Shares857

Combined PnL-$197.47

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 98.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$33.48	74% 105203-37122 (142325)
Atomforge	Upavg 61.6¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$375.2	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$125.77	51% 12360-11859 (24219)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$21.74	89% 29663-3561 (33224)
machinelearned	Upavg 62.8¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$291.81	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 64.7¢	$822.96	$1.1K	+$291.54	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
BY ByteBadger93	Upavg 66.7¢	$771	$1.0K	+$242.44	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 71.9¢	$559.61	$541.43	-$18.18	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 66.1¢	$352.6	$518.9	+$166.3	75% 295-99 (394)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 70.3¢	$446.25	$517.41	+$71.16	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
BO bosona	Upavg 90.7¢	$467.96	$515.43	+$47.47	55% 51803-42237 (94040)
AL almach	Upavg 91.6¢	$461.56	$503.46	+$41.9	55% 50273-41876 (92149)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 77.2¢	$394.68	$434.85	+$40.16	66% 101181-52990 (154171)
MO mo-money	Upavg 91.9¢	$393	$427.57	+$34.58	55% 52460-42905 (95365)
Bossgirl	Upavg 75.4¢	$203.53	$269.87	+$66.34	54% 4793-4035 (8828)
NIULAI4	Upavg 95.2¢	$253.97	$243.53	-$10.43	75% 9961-3335 (13296)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.4¢	$244.32	$242.02	-$2.29	55% 15067-12471 (27538)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 58.6¢	$82.05	$127.93	+$45.89	49% 4268-4361 (8629)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 73.9¢	$119.9	$113	-$6.89	53% 10527-9523 (20050)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 92¢	$157.09	$90.1	-$66.99	54% 13761-11752 (25513)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$48.41	$80.44	+$32.03	52% 10639-9975 (20614)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$50.44	$57.34	+$6.9	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 93.8¢	$42.2	$44.98	+$2.78	61% 46285-29472 (75757)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$38.4	$44.83	+$6.43	55% 52018-43125 (95143)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 21.2¢	$26.92	$5.86	-$21.06	65% 114804-61868 (176672)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,015

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$33.48

Record

74%

105203-37122 (142325)

Atomforge

Invested

$2,613.97

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$375.2

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

blue.birds

Invested

$1,744.31

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$125.77

Record

51%

12360-11859 (24219)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,524.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$21.74

Record

89%

29663-3561 (33224)

machinelearned

Invested

$1,501.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$291.81

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$822.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$291.54

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

ByteBadger93

Invested

$771

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$242.44

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$559.61

Value

$541.43

PnL

-$18.18

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$352.6

Value

$518.9

PnL

+$166.3

Record

75%

295-99 (394)

asdcaxz

Invested

$446.25

Value

$517.41

PnL

+$71.16

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

bosona

Invested

$467.96

Value

$515.43

PnL

+$47.47

Record

55%

51803-42237 (94040)

almach

Invested

$461.56

Value

$503.46

PnL

+$41.9

Record

55%

50273-41876 (92149)

Bonereaper

Invested

$394.68

Value

$434.85

PnL

+$40.16

Record

66%

101181-52990 (154171)

mo-money

Invested

$393

Value

$427.57

PnL

+$34.58

Record

55%

52460-42905 (95365)

Bossgirl

Invested

$203.53

Value

$269.87

PnL

+$66.34

Record

54%

4793-4035 (8828)

NIULAI4

Invested

$253.97

Value

$243.53

PnL

-$10.43

Record

75%

9961-3335 (13296)

GoodFallen

Invested

$244.32

Value

$242.02

PnL

-$2.29

Record

55%

15067-12471 (27538)

Papeasy

Invested

$82.05

Value

$127.93

PnL

+$45.89

Record

49%

4268-4361 (8629)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$119.9

Value

$113

PnL

-$6.89

Record

53%

10527-9523 (20050)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$157.09

Value

$90.1

PnL

-$66.99

Record

54%

13761-11752 (25513)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$48.41

Value

$80.44

PnL

+$32.03

Record

52%

10639-9975 (20614)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$50.44

Value

$57.34

PnL

+$6.9

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$42.2

Value

$44.98

PnL

+$2.78

Record

61%

46285-29472 (75757)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

$44.83

PnL

+$6.43

Record

55%

52018-43125 (95143)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.92

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$21.06

Record

65%

114804-61868 (176672)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

24 of 31 top traders (77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.