Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$165.55

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,546

Combined PnL+$60.86

Down3 traders

Total Value$29.2

Total Shares1,423

Combined PnL-$226.41

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Upavg 72.9¢	$670	$592.62	-$77.38	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
Atomforge	Upavg 76.6¢	$370.4	$483.11	+$112.7	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 78.8¢	$365.16	$463.25	+$98.09	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 74.1¢	$350.53	$389.51	+$38.98	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 88.7¢	$196.07	$180	-$16.07	75% 295-99 (394)
BY ByteBadger93	Upavg 74.6¢	$138.65	$93.82	-$44.83	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 72.1¢	$126.98	$88.99	-$37.99	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 92¢	$36.58	$39.74	+$3.16	49% 4268-4361 (8629)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 10.8¢	$86.85	$28.76	-$58.09	75% 9961-3335 (13296)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Upavg 94.4¢	$33.98	$18.18	-$15.8	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 19.3¢	$165.1	$0.43	-$164.67	51% 12360-11859 (24219)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 19.9¢	$3.66	$0.01	-$3.65	55% 52018-43125 (95143)

machinelearned

Invested

$670

Value

$592.62

PnL

-$77.38

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Atomforge

Invested

$370.4

Value

$483.11

PnL

+$112.7

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$365.16

Value

$463.25

PnL

+$98.09

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

asdcaxz

Invested

$350.53

Value

$389.51

PnL

+$38.98

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$196.07

Value

$180

PnL

-$16.07

Record

75%

295-99 (394)

ByteBadger93

Invested

$138.65

Value

$93.82

PnL

-$44.83

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$126.98

Value

$88.99

PnL

-$37.99

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$36.58

Value

$39.74

PnL

+$3.16

Record

49%

4268-4361 (8629)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.85

Value

$28.76

PnL

-$58.09

Record

75%

9961-3335 (13296)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$33.98

Value

$18.18

PnL

-$15.8

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$165.1

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$164.67

Record

51%

12360-11859 (24219)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.65

Record

55%

52018-43125 (95143)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.