Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

16 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 100¢

+83% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares16,764

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Down12 traders

Total Value$823.03

Total Shares6,910

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
76 76marsh	Upavg 54.1¢	$5.3K	$9.8K	+$4.5K	61% 23-15 (38)
Atomforge	Upavg 33.3¢	$714.34	$1.4K	+$716.08	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
machinelearned	Upavg 72.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$249.68	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 62.8¢	$950.45	$1.0K	+$71.11	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 59.5¢	$857.44	$881.17	+$23.73	51% 12360-11859 (24219)
BY ByteBadger93	Upavg 63.6¢	$820.46	$846.34	+$25.88	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$795.06	$640	-$155.06	75% 295-99 (394)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$306.79	$323.2	+$16.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$488.28	$316.8	-$171.48
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 41.1¢	$601.32	$451.56	-$149.76	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 55.5¢	$204.88	$369.29	+$164.41	66% 101181-52990 (154171)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 48.6¢	$298.43	$341.84	+$43.4	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 40.3¢	$193.94	$249.87	+$55.93	55% 15067-12471 (27538)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 46.2¢	$126.99	$201.97	+$74.98	54% 13761-11752 (25513)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 39.3¢	$322.93	$189.82	-$133.11	12% 18977-134229 (153206)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Downavg 53.2¢	$192.33	$179.1	-$13.22	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 58.3¢	$118.06	$154.05	+$35.99	52% 21295-19590 (40885)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 61.7¢	$99.06	$104.99	+$5.94	53% 10527-9523 (20050)
Bossgirl<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$28.25	$58.57	+$30.32	54% 4793-4035 (8828)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$26.7	$54.97	+$28.27	58% 63507-46701 (110208)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$36.74	$44.16	+$7.42	56% 60779-47271 (108050)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 89¢	$36.4	$40.88	+$4.48	57% 9999-7468 (17467)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 26.2¢	$661.74	$1.26	-$660.48	56% 77627-59916 (137543)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 53.6¢	$477.57	$0.45	-$477.13	55% 50273-41876 (92149)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 61.5¢	$393.23	$0.32	-$392.91	55% 51803-42237 (94040)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 61.1¢	$354.62	$0.29	-$354.33	55% 52460-42905 (95365)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$4.59	$0.08	-$4.51	59% 63961-45114 (109075)

76marsh

Invested

$5,283.13

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

61%

23-15 (38)

Atomforge

Invested

$714.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$716.08

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

machinelearned

Invested

$1,437.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$249.68

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$950.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$71.11

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

blue.birds

Invested

$857.44

Value

$881.17

PnL

+$23.73

Record

51%

12360-11859 (24219)

ByteBadger93

Invested

$820.46

Value

$846.34

PnL

+$25.88

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$795.06

Value

$640

PnL

-$155.06

Record

75%

295-99 (394)

Both legs:

Up$306.7947.9¢+$16.41

Down$488.2876.3¢-$171.48

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$601.32

Value

$451.56

PnL

-$149.76

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

Bonereaper

Invested

$204.88

Value

$369.29

PnL

+$164.41

Record

66%

101181-52990 (154171)

asdcaxz

Invested

$298.43

Value

$341.84

PnL

+$43.4

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

GoodFallen

Invested

$193.94

Value

$249.87

PnL

+$55.93

Record

55%

15067-12471 (27538)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$126.99

Value

$201.97

PnL

+$74.98

Record

54%

13761-11752 (25513)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$322.93

Value

$189.82

PnL

-$133.11

Record

12%

18977-134229 (153206)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Down

Invested

$192.33

Value

$179.1

PnL

-$13.22

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$118.06

Value

$154.05

PnL

+$35.99

Record

52%

21295-19590 (40885)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$99.06

Value

$104.99

PnL

+$5.94

Record

53%

10527-9523 (20050)

Bossgirl<$100

Invested

$28.25

Value

$58.57

PnL

+$30.32

Record

54%

4793-4035 (8828)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$28.27

Record

58%

63507-46701 (110208)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$36.74

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$7.42

Record

56%

60779-47271 (108050)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$40.88

PnL

+$4.48

Record

57%

9999-7468 (17467)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$661.74

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$660.48

Record

56%

77627-59916 (137543)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$477.57

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$477.13

Record

55%

50273-41876 (92149)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$393.23

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$392.91

Record

55%

51803-42237 (94040)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$354.62

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$354.33

Record

55%

52460-42905 (95365)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.59

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.51

Record

59%

63961-45114 (109075)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.