Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 36 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,568

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,492

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Downavg 76.6¢	$947.67	$761.58	-$186.09	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 51.8¢	$678.4	$675.27	-$3.12	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 77.7¢	$652.68	$668.7	+$16.02	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 37.3¢	$434.99	$583.42	+$148.43	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 64.4¢	$436.26	—	-$436.26	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Downavg 47.1¢	$856.02	$1.8K	+$960.39	51% 712-671 (1383)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 55.8¢	$407.41	$436.61	+$29.2	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$396	$400	+$4	49% 10667-11322 (21989)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 59¢	$470.38	—	-$470.38	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 72.7¢	$723.78	—	-$723.78	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 72.9¢	$733.74	—	-$733.74	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 47.4¢	$173.26	—	-$173.26	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 61.9¢	$278.59	—	-$278.59	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 64.6¢	$125.64	$182.65	+$57.01	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53¢	$155.14	$177.05	+$21.9	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 43.5¢	$92.85	$213.36	+$120.51	57% 9968-7456 (17424)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 65.6¢	$163.86	$139.84	-$24.01	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 66.8¢	$144.86	$164.57	+$19.71	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 70.7¢	$545.52	—	-$545.52	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
PA PapeasyCTR	Upavg 69.5¢	$201.23	—	-$201.23	49% 4229-4328 (8557)
ohioism	Downavg 74.4¢	$108.11	$125	+$16.88	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 98.8¢	$168.61	$100	-$68.61	51% 17672-17078 (34750)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 43.7¢	$76.51	$100	+$23.83	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 37¢	$34.43	$89.98	+$55.55	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.9¢	$9.8	$89.98	+$80.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$24.63	—	-$24.63
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 82¢	$80.38	—	-$80.38	61% 98748-62704 (161452)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$947.67

Value

$761.58

PnL

-$186.09

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$678.4

Value

$675.27

PnL

-$3.12

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$652.68

Value

$668.7

PnL

+$16.02

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$434.99

Value

$583.42

PnL

+$148.43

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$436.26

Value

—

PnL

-$436.26

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

KARIZMATIKU

Down

Invested

$856.02

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$960.39

Record

51%

712-671 (1383)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$407.41

Value

$436.61

PnL

+$29.2

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$396

Value

$400

PnL

+$4

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$470.38

Value

—

PnL

-$470.38

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$723.78

Value

—

PnL

-$723.78

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

almachCTR

Invested

$733.74

Value

—

PnL

-$733.74

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$173.26

Value

—

PnL

-$173.26

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$278.59

Value

—

PnL

-$278.59

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$125.64

Value

$182.65

PnL

+$57.01

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$155.14

Value

$177.05

PnL

+$21.9

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$92.85

Value

$213.36

PnL

+$120.51

Record

57%

9968-7456 (17424)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$163.86

Value

$139.84

PnL

-$24.01

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$144.86

Value

$164.57

PnL

+$19.71

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$545.52

Value

—

PnL

-$545.52

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

PapeasyCTR

Invested

$201.23

Value

—

PnL

-$201.23

Record

49%

4229-4328 (8557)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$108.11

Value

$125

PnL

+$16.88

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$168.61

Value

$100

PnL

-$68.61

Record

51%

17672-17078 (34750)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$76.51

Value

$100

PnL

+$23.83

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$34.43

Value

$89.98

PnL

+$55.55

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

Both legs:

Down$9.810.9¢+$80.19

Up$24.6337¢-$24.63

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$80.38

Value

—

PnL

-$80.38

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 36 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8a14498e...d8469a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794042000

Traders in this Market

machinelearned

Down — $761.58

-$186.09

1000monkeys

Down — $675.27

-$3.12

asdcaxz

Down — $668.7

+$16.02

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $583.42

+$148.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$436.26

KARIZMATIKU

Down — $1.8K

+$960.39

blue.birds

Down — $436.61

+$29.2

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $400

+$4

Bonereaper

Up — $0

mo-money

Up — $0