Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 99.5¢

+12% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares9,123

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Up12 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,508

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gansinimen	Downavg 95.8¢	$7.0K	$4.3K	$-2.7K	51% 17665-17062 (34727)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$15	74% 105089-37085 (142174)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 61.5¢	$4.4K	$2.3K	$-2.1K	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 41.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$57.25	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$768.63	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$617.92	$671.48	+$53.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.1¢	$1.5K	$668.33	-$822.19
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 70.1¢	$610.91	$842.98	+$232.06	53% 601-535 (1136)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$869.07	$738.68	-$130.39	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$710.4	$540.9	-$169.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$158.67	$197.79	+$39.11
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 71.7¢	$1.1K	$732.31	-$416.13	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$639.06	$695.71	+$56.65	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$237.7	$370.43	+$132.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$401.36	$325.28	-$76.07
NO notfairplayCTR	Upavg 6.1¢	$106.6	$694.69	+$588.1	33% 224-461 (685)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$323.44	$371.45	+$48.01	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$161.01	$239.33	+$78.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$162.43	$132.12	-$30.31
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$418.86	$359	-$59.86	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$110.68	$193.6	+$82.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.6¢	$308.18	$165.4	-$142.78
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$321.03	$340.89	+$19.86	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.1¢	$104.73	$203.42	+$98.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$216.3	$137.47	-$78.83
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$283.34	$316.76	+$33.42	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$121.5	$236.98	+$115.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.1¢	$161.84	$79.78	-$82.06
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$326.04	$284.27	-$41.78	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$230.99	$177.22	-$53.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$95.06	$107.05	+$11.99
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 34¢	$136.73	$244.05	+$107.31	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$109.86	$127.77	+$17.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 14¢	$26.88	$116.28	+$89.41
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$237.47	$224.33	-$13.14	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$141.2	$130.01	-$11.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$96.27	$94.32	-$1.95
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 80.3¢	$278.33	$200.94	-$77.39	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.3¢	$218.64	$107.49	-$111.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$59.69	$93.45	+$33.76
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$153.92	$150.16	-$3.77	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$87.73	$75.54	-$12.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$66.19	$74.62	+$8.42
BO bosona	Downavg 98¢	$220.25	$125	-$95.25	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 75.5¢	$106.49	$97.3	-$9.19	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 11¢	$10.72	$94.22	+$83.5	64% 4956-2802 (7758)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$65.94	$85.57	+$19.63	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 93.7¢	$189.65	$84.96	-$104.69	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$52.5	$75	+$22.5	49% 4190-4292 (8482)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$7,012.29

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

51%

17665-17062 (34727)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$15

Record

74%

105089-37085 (142174)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$4,367.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$1,431.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$57.25

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$2,108.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$768.63

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

Both legs:

Down$617.9255.7¢+$53.56

Up$1,490.5288.1¢-$822.19

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$610.91

Value

$842.98

PnL

+$232.06

Record

53%

601-535 (1136)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$869.07

Value

$738.68

PnL

-$130.39

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

Both legs:

Up$710.451.9¢-$169.5

Down$158.6748.5¢+$39.11

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$1,148.43

Value

$732.31

PnL

-$416.13

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$639.06

Value

$695.71

PnL

+$56.65

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Both legs:

Down$237.738.8¢+$132.72

Up$401.3648.7¢-$76.07

notfairplayCTR

Invested

$106.6

Value

$694.69

PnL

+$588.1

Record

33%

224-461 (685)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$323.44

Value

$371.45

PnL

+$48.01

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

Both legs:

Down$161.0140.7¢+$78.33

Up$162.4348.6¢-$30.31

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$418.86

Value

$359

PnL

-$59.86

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

Both legs:

Down$110.6834.6¢+$82.92

Up$308.1873.6¢-$142.78

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$321.03

Value

$340.89

PnL

+$19.86

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Both legs:

Down$104.7331.1¢+$98.69

Up$216.362.2¢-$78.83

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$283.34

Value

$316.76

PnL

+$33.42

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$121.531¢+$115.48

Up$161.8480.1¢-$82.06

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$326.04

Value

$284.27

PnL

-$41.78

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

Both legs:

Up$230.9951.5¢-$53.77

Down$95.0653.7¢+$11.99

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$136.73

Value

$244.05

PnL

+$107.31

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Both legs:

Up$109.8634¢+$17.91

Down$26.8814¢+$89.41

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$237.47

Value

$224.33

PnL

-$13.14

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

Both legs:

Down$141.265.7¢-$11.19

Up$96.2740.3¢-$1.95

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$278.33

Value

$200.94

PnL

-$77.39

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

Both legs:

Up$218.6480.3¢-$111.15

Down$59.6938.6¢+$33.76

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$153.92

Value

$150.16

PnL

-$3.77

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

Both legs:

Up$87.7345.9¢-$12.19

Down$66.1953.7¢+$8.42

bosona

Down

Invested

$220.25

Value

$125

PnL

-$95.25

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$106.49

Value

$97.3

PnL

-$9.19

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$10.72

Value

$94.22

PnL

+$83.5

Record

64%

4956-2802 (7758)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$65.94

Value

$85.57

PnL

+$19.63

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

almachCTR

Invested

$189.65

Value

$84.96

PnL

-$104.69

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$52.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$22.5

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.