Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

18 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Down (51%) · Down at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 51%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$749.45

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 99.5¢

+39% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 35 top traders (51%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares8,030

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up17 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,115

Combined PnL+$349.61

Down — 51%Up — 49%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$135.11	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.8¢	$839.71	$905.3	+$65.59	54% 16593-14022 (30615)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 77.7¢	$1.2K	$899.3	-$313.2	51% 17665-17064 (34729)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 34.9¢	$709.89	$828.19	+$118.31	55% 9869-8182 (18051)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$423.59	$613.4	+$189.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$286.29	$214.8	-$71.49
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 70.4¢	$1.2K	$809.38	-$341.83	53% 602-536 (1138)
LI Liquidifier	Downavg 65.5¢	$1.1K	$804.69	-$259.3	50% 1200-1185 (2385)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 71.7¢	$740.56	$796.21	+$55.65	48% 6636-7306 (13942)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$759.65	$721.24	-$38.4	55% 52366-42837 (95203)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$532.82	$421.37	-$111.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$226.82	$299.87	+$73.05
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$670.28	$658.78	-$11.5	55% 51720-42172 (93892)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$491.57	$385.82	-$105.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$178.71	$272.96	+$94.25
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$624.95	$615.84	-$9.11	55% 50162-41771 (91933)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$426.36	$340.08	-$86.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$198.58	$275.76	+$77.17
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 35.1¢	$402.69	$580.03	+$177.35	56% 77477-59841 (137318)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$422.45	$430.05	+$7.6	55% 14980-12426 (27406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$143.23	$231.12	+$87.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.5¢	$279.22	$198.93	-$80.29
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$371.7	$377.85	+$6.15	59% 11313-7772 (19085)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$301.29	$301.49	+$0.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$70.41	$76.36	+$5.96
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$372.01	$323.7	-$48.32	51% 12146-11645 (23791)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$274.89	$190.46	-$84.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$97.13	$133.24	+$36.11
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$274.11	$274.14	+$0.04	66% 101052-52927 (153979)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$102.98	$151.01	+$48.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$171.12	$123.14	-$47.99
AN antsaslykuCTR	Upavg 27.9¢	$139.57	$252.51	+$112.94	65% 114635-61671 (176306)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$224.86	$249.2	+$24.33	54% 13699-11695 (25394)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$114.4	$169.17	+$54.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.3¢	$110.47	$80.02	-$30.44
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 39¢	$160.27	$207.62	+$47.35	45% 40159-48112 (88271)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 28.8¢	$143.21	$203.67	+$60.46	52% 21126-19285 (40411)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 35.1¢	$134.02	$192.79	+$58.77	12% 18921-134179 (153100)
Bossgirl	Downavg 63¢	$219.85	$172.69	-$47.17	54% 4770-4017 (8787)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 44.1¢	$107.7	$120.96	+$13.26	54% 10149-8512 (18661)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$108.87	$119.68	+$10.81	52% 10576-9909 (20485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$55	$75.75	+$20.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$53.87	$43.94	-$9.94
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 70.8¢	$156.29	$109.34	-$46.94	55% 1703-1407 (3110)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$86.15	$96.84	+$10.69	56% 8840-6914 (15754)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,190.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$135.11

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$839.71

Value

$905.3

PnL

+$65.59

Record

54%

16593-14022 (30615)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$1,212.5

Value

$899.3

PnL

-$313.2

Record

51%

17665-17064 (34729)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$709.89

Value

$828.19

PnL

+$118.31

Record

55%

9869-8182 (18051)

Both legs:

Up$423.5934.9¢+$189.8

Down$286.2966¢-$71.49

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$1,151.21

Value

$809.38

PnL

-$341.83

Record

53%

602-536 (1138)

Liquidifier

Down

Invested

$1,063.99

Value

$804.69

PnL

-$259.3

Record

50%

1200-1185 (2385)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$740.56

Value

$796.21

PnL

+$55.65

Record

48%

6636-7306 (13942)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$759.65

Value

$721.24

PnL

-$38.4

Record

55%

52366-42837 (95203)

Both legs:

Down$532.8262.6¢-$111.45

Up$226.8238.2¢+$73.05

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$670.28

Value

$658.78

PnL

-$11.5

Record

55%

51720-42172 (93892)

Both legs:

Down$491.5763.1¢-$105.75

Up$178.7133.1¢+$94.25

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$624.95

Value

$615.84

PnL

-$9.11

Record

55%

50162-41771 (91933)

Both legs:

Down$426.3662.1¢-$86.28

Up$198.5836.4¢+$77.17

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$402.69

Value

$580.03

PnL

+$177.35

Record

56%

77477-59841 (137318)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$422.45

Value

$430.05

PnL

+$7.6

Record

55%

14980-12426 (27406)

Both legs:

Up$143.2331.3¢+$87.89

Down$279.2269.5¢-$80.29

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$371.7

Value

$377.85

PnL

+$6.15

Record

59%

11313-7772 (19085)

Both legs:

Up$301.2950.5¢+$0.2

Down$70.4145.6¢+$5.96

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$372.01

Value

$323.7

PnL

-$48.32

Record

51%

12146-11645 (23791)

Both legs:

Down$274.8971.4¢-$84.43

Up$97.1336.8¢+$36.11

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$274.11

Value

$274.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

66%

101052-52927 (153979)

Both legs:

Up$102.9834.4¢+$48.02

Down$171.1268.8¢-$47.99

antsaslykuCTR

Invested

$139.57

Value

$252.51

PnL

+$112.94

Record

65%

114635-61671 (176306)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$224.86

Value

$249.2

PnL

+$24.33

Record

54%

13699-11695 (25394)

Both legs:

Up$114.434.1¢+$54.77

Down$110.4768.3¢-$30.44

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$160.27

Value

$207.62

PnL

+$47.35

Record

45%

40159-48112 (88271)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$143.21

Value

$203.67

PnL

+$60.46

Record

52%

21126-19285 (40411)

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$134.02

Value

$192.79

PnL

+$58.77

Record

12%

18921-134179 (153100)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$219.85

Value

$172.69

PnL

-$47.17

Record

54%

4770-4017 (8787)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$107.7

Value

$120.96

PnL

+$13.26

Record

54%

10149-8512 (18661)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$108.87

Value

$119.68

PnL

+$10.81

Record

52%

10576-9909 (20485)

Both legs:

Up$5536.7¢+$20.75

Down$53.8760.7¢-$9.94

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$156.29

Value

$109.34

PnL

-$46.94

Record

55%

1703-1407 (3110)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$86.15

Value

$96.84

PnL

+$10.69

Record

56%

8840-6914 (15754)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 35 top traders (51%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.