Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 29 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares11,318

Combined PnL+$584.88

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,503

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$36.14	56% 30389-23643 (54032)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 44.9¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$324.8	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 56.9¢	$905.05	$1.1K	+$200.2	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 38.4¢	$652.93	—	-$652.93	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
AL almach	Downavg 78.6¢	$627.3	$645.75	+$18.45	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
BO bosona	Downavg 82.7¢	$696.15	$608.44	-$87.72	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 53.3¢	$540.7	$561.5	+$20.8	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 41.5¢	$474.98	—	-$474.98	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$636.46	$393.06	-$243.4	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$179.16	$393.06	+$213.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$457.31	—	-$457.31
BL blue.birds	Downavg 61.7¢	$566.02	$520.4	-$45.63	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
MO mo-money	Downavg 83¢	$515.13	$499.99	-$15.14	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 53¢	$520.38	$493.12	-$27.26	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 42.2¢	$400.21	—	-$400.21	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$449.46	$454	+$4.54	89% 29269-3554 (32823)
NIULAI4	Downavg 82.3¢	$323.09	$392.69	+$69.6	75% 9870-3291 (13161)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 62.6¢	$296.51	—	-$296.51	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$367.75	$184.71	-$183.04	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$122.56	$184.71	+$62.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$245.19	—	-$245.19
FairValueMachine	Downavg 47.6¢	$202.7	$226.36	+$23.67	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 44¢	$229.56	$326.67	+$97.1	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$143.64	$326.67	+$183.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$85.93	—	-$85.93
machinelearned	Downavg 56.4¢	$220.9	$196.36	-$24.54	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 50.5¢	$176.08	$186.03	+$9.95	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$201.36	$162	-$39.36	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$71.28	$162	+$90.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$130.08	—	-$130.08
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.3¢	$136.93	$112.76	-$24.17	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$114.95	$177.94	+$62.99	65% 114545-61579 (176124)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.6¢	$44.9	—	-$44.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$70.06	$177.94	+$107.88
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 64.1¢	$71.07	$110.9	+$39.83	61% 46056-29221 (75277)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,577.86

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$36.14

Record

56%

30389-23643 (54032)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,130.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$324.8

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$905.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$200.2

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$652.93

Value

—

PnL

-$652.93

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

almach

Down

Invested

$627.3

Value

$645.75

PnL

+$18.45

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

bosona

Down

Invested

$696.15

Value

$608.44

PnL

-$87.72

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$540.7

Value

$561.5

PnL

+$20.8

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$474.98

Value

—

PnL

-$474.98

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$636.46

Value

$393.06

PnL

-$243.4

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Both legs:

Down$179.1645.6¢+$213.9

Up$457.3132.5¢-$457.31

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$566.02

Value

$520.4

PnL

-$45.63

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$515.13

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$15.14

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$520.38

Value

$493.12

PnL

-$27.26

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$400.21

Value

—

PnL

-$400.21

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$449.46

Value

$454

PnL

+$4.54

Record

89%

29269-3554 (32823)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$323.09

Value

$392.69

PnL

+$69.6

Record

75%

9870-3291 (13161)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$296.51

Value

—

PnL

-$296.51

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$367.75

Value

$184.71

PnL

-$183.04

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

Both legs:

Down$122.5666.4¢+$62.15

Up$245.1937.2¢-$245.19

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$202.7

Value

$226.36

PnL

+$23.67

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$229.56

Value

$326.67

PnL

+$97.1

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$143.6444¢+$183.03

Up$85.9357.6¢-$85.93

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$220.9

Value

$196.36

PnL

-$24.54

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$176.08

Value

$186.03

PnL

+$9.95

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$201.36

Value

$162

PnL

-$39.36

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

Both legs:

Down$71.2844¢+$90.72

Up$130.0843.1¢-$130.08

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$136.93

Value

$112.76

PnL

-$24.17

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.95

Value

$177.94

PnL

+$62.99

Record

65%

114545-61579 (176124)

Both legs:

Up$44.974.6¢-$44.9

Down$70.0639.4¢+$107.88

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$71.07

Value

$110.9

PnL

+$39.83

Record

61%

46056-29221 (75277)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 29 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9579964f...58d638

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794001500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.6K

+$36.14

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.5K

+$324.8

Bonereaper

Down — $1.1K

+$200.2

ply-pm0

CTR

Up — $0

-$652.93

almach

Down — $645.75

+$18.45

bosona

Down — $608.44

-$87.72

1000monkeys

Down — $561.5

+$20.8

GoodFallen

CTR

Up — $0

-$474.98

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$243.4

blue.birds

Down — $520.4

-$45.63

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