Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$61.1

Smart Money Signal

25 of 30 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,014

Combined PnL+$337.45

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares526

Combined PnL-$276.36

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 91.9¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$200.69	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 99.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$2.61	75% 260-87 (347)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 77.9¢	$717.15	$686.26	-$30.89	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 76.3¢	$370.74	$400.99	+$30.25	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
machinelearned	Upavg 81.4¢	$319.83	$381.71	+$61.89	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
pspspsps5	Upavg 72.8¢	$249.73	$304.68	+$54.95	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 73.4¢	$294.36	$290.91	-$3.45	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$292.78	$217.4	-$75.39	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.4¢	$161.83	$217.4	+$55.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.6¢	$130.96	—	-$130.96
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$260.45	$244.93	-$15.52	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$172.21	$244.93	+$72.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$88.24	—	-$88.24
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99.7¢	$225.63	$226.34	+$0.71	48% 10586-11258 (21844)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$215.8	$216.02	+$0.22	59% 63885-45013 (108898)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 85.4¢	$225.28	$219.55	-$5.74	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Downavg 44.4¢	$197.76	—	-$197.76	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 78.6¢	$204.98	$204	-$0.98	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 78.2¢	$182.34	$179.61	-$2.73	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 67.3¢	$159.52	$140	-$19.52	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 70.9¢	$74.82	$100.55	+$25.73	49% 80931-84364 (165295)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 81¢	$77.32	$82.96	+$5.64	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 77¢	$69.83	$60	-$9.83	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 75¢	$63.38	$84.5	+$21.12	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 25.3¢	$50.54	—	-$50.54	65% 114545-61579 (176124)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 78.7¢	$54.41	$50	-$4.41	63% 42413-25111 (67524)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$40.99	$44.19	+$3.2	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 84.8¢	$25.03	$26.26	+$1.23	49% 4160-4265 (8425)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$19.8	$25	+$5.2	56% 60501-47058 (107559)

Bonereaper

Invested

$3,467.19

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$200.69

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$2,608.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$2.61

Record

75%

260-87 (347)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$717.15

Value

$686.26

PnL

-$30.89

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

ply-pm0

Invested

$370.74

Value

$400.99

PnL

+$30.25

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

machinelearned

Invested

$319.83

Value

$381.71

PnL

+$61.89

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

pspspsps5

Invested

$249.73

Value

$304.68

PnL

+$54.95

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

1000monkeys

Invested

$294.36

Value

$290.91

PnL

-$3.45

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$292.78

Value

$217.4

PnL

-$75.39

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

Both legs:

Up$161.8374.4¢+$55.57

Down$130.9627.6¢-$130.96

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$260.45

Value

$244.93

PnL

-$15.52

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Up$172.2170.3¢+$72.72

Down$88.2440.5¢-$88.24

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$225.63

Value

$226.34

PnL

+$0.71

Record

48%

10586-11258 (21844)

0x50f7

Invested

$215.8

Value

$216.02

PnL

+$0.22

Record

59%

63885-45013 (108898)

blue.birds

Invested

$225.28

Value

$219.55

PnL

-$5.74

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Down

Invested

$197.76

Value

—

PnL

-$197.76

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$204.98

Value

$204

PnL

-$0.98

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

asdcaxz

Invested

$182.34

Value

$179.61

PnL

-$2.73

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

GoodFallen

Invested

$159.52

Value

$140

PnL

-$19.52

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$74.82

Value

$100.55

PnL

+$25.73

Record

49%

80931-84364 (165295)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$77.32

Value

$82.96

PnL

+$5.64

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$69.83

Value

$60

PnL

-$9.83

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$63.38

Value

$84.5

PnL

+$21.12

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.54

Value

—

PnL

-$50.54

Record

65%

114545-61579 (176124)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$54.41

Value

$50

PnL

-$4.41

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$40.99

Value

$44.19

PnL

+$3.2

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$25.03

Value

$26.26

PnL

+$1.23

Record

49%

4160-4265 (8425)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$25

PnL

+$5.2

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 30 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa3e80327...743c2b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794001200

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $3.7K

+$200.69

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Up — $2.6K

+$2.61

CrouchPredictions

Up — $686.26

-$30.89

ply-pm0

Up — $400.99

+$30.25

machinelearned

Up — $381.71

+$61.89

pspspsps5

Up — $304.68

+$54.95

1000monkeys

Up — $290.91

-$3.45

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $226.34

+$0.71

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