Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 35%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 40.8¢ | $759.68 | — | -$759.68 | 56% 14924-11728 (26652) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 38.4¢ | $446.48 | — | -$446.48 | 50% 5585-5650 (11235) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 51.8¢ | $261.66 | $361.84 | +$103.33 | 55% 7793-6374 (14167) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 41.9¢ | $147.87 | $304.29 | +$156.43 | 55% 8967-7399 (16366) |
LI Little-bigARB<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $176.64 | $118.53 | -$58.1 | 35% 19121-36132 (55253) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.7¢ | $134.14 | — | -$134.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.9¢ | $42.5 | $118.53 | +$76.03 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 66.1¢ | $335.47 | — | -$335.47 | 60% 12586-8357 (20943) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 58¢ | $150.11 | — | -$150.11 | 58% 38498-27579 (66077) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $160.86 | $261.89 | +$101.03 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.6¢ | $127.21 | $261.89 | +$134.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.5¢ | $33.65 | — | -$33.65 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 25.7¢ | $29.6 | $60 | +$30.4 | 55% 24178-19509 (43687) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 40.1¢ | $43.64 | $84.48 | +$40.84 | 56% 8353-6485 (14838) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $37.85 | $134.64 | +$96.79 | 46% 38677-45770 (84447) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 90.6¢ | $48.42 | $46.05 | -$2.37 | 65% 4332-2383 (6715) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $24.26 | $34.51 | +$10.25 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 85.8¢ | $25.74 | $30 | +$4.26 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $22.3 | $70 | +$47.7 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $23.19 | — | -$16.39 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $5.75 | $25 | +$19.25 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $5.04 | $14.41 | +$9.37 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $92.56 | — | -$92.56 | 65% 112572-59423 (171995) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20375-19462 (39837) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3698-2861 (6559) |
Invested
$759.68
Value
—
PnL
-$759.68
Record
56%
14924-11728 (26652)
Invested
$446.48
Value
—
PnL
-$446.48
Record
50%
5585-5650 (11235)
Invested
$261.66
Value
$361.84
PnL
+$103.33
Record
55%
7793-6374 (14167)
machinelearnedInvested
$147.87
Value
$304.29
PnL
+$156.43
Record
55%
8967-7399 (16366)
Invested
$176.64
Value
$118.53
PnL
-$58.1
Record
35%
19121-36132 (55253)
Both legs:
Invested
$335.47
Value
—
PnL
-$335.47
Record
60%
12586-8357 (20943)
Invested
$150.11
Value
—
PnL
-$150.11
Record
58%
38498-27579 (66077)
Invested
$160.86
Value
$261.89
PnL
+$101.03
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$30.4
Record
55%
24178-19509 (43687)
Invested
$43.64
Value
$84.48
PnL
+$40.84
Record
56%
8353-6485 (14838)
pspspsps5Invested
$37.85
Value
$134.64
PnL
+$96.79
Record
46%
38677-45770 (84447)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$48.42
Value
$46.05
PnL
-$2.37
Record
65%
4332-2383 (6715)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$34.51
PnL
+$10.25
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$25.74
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.26
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
ohioism<$100Invested
$22.3
Value
$70
PnL
+$47.7
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$23.19
Value
—
PnL
-$16.39
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$19.25
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$14.41
PnL
+$9.37
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
Invested
$92.56
Value
—
PnL
-$92.56
Record
65%
112572-59423 (171995)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20375-19462 (39837)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3698-2861 (6559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $361.84
machinelearned
Up — $304.29
Little-big
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sir-upalot
Up — $60
wzbbb
Up — $84.48