Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (78%). 12 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 23¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Up23¢Down77¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$365.84

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 22.5¢

-52% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up23%

Down78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$355.36

Total Shares568

Combined PnL-$32.07

Up12 traders

Total Value$648.54

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL-$333.78

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$435.69	$390.7	-$44.98	67% 102538-50861 (153399)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$279.25	$301.4	+$22.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$156.44	$89.31	-$67.13
KA KARIZMATIKU	Downavg 54.3¢	$193.21	$176.04	-$17.17	52% 707-663 (1370)
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$192.64	$166.32	-$26.32	67% 22484-10826 (33310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$140.89	$100.82	-$40.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$51.75	$65.5	+$13.75
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$167	$148.25	-$18.74	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$95.71	$108.19	+$12.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$71.29	$40.06	-$31.23
AL almachCTR	Upavg 46.3¢	$169.39	$126.26	-$43.13	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 52¢	$211.12	$123.83	-$87.29	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 41¢	$181.14	$121.62	-$59.52	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 46.7¢	$172.79	$114.69	-$58.1	50% 8363-8418 (16781)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 51.1¢	$186.11	$111.02	-$75.09	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$108.37	$109.42	+$1.05	30% 12160-28125 (40285)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$59.41	$63.54	+$4.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$48.97	$45.89	-$3.08
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$56	$47.46	-$8.54	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$81.37	$41.16	-$3.06	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$36.47	$34.33	-$2.15	56% 77369-59755 (137124)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$28.03	$26.38	-$1.66	56% 60501-47058 (107559)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$23.92	$24.95	+$1.03	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 40.2¢	$8.44	$10.61	+$2.17	58% 63261-46470 (109731)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$15.81	$9.85	-$5.96	61% 98563-62545 (161108)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$11.68	$9.38	-$2.31	63% 42413-25111 (67524)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$10.02	$8.65	-$1.37	61% 46056-29221 (75277)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$9.3	$6.2	-$3.1	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$4.47	$4.45	-$0.02	52% 12307-11342 (23649)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$2.94	$2.68	-$0.26	65% 114545-61579 (176124)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$2.64	$2.38	-$0.26	59% 2990-2083 (5073)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$2.05	$1.99	-$0.06	47% 6494-7195 (13689)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$435.69

Value

$390.7

PnL

-$44.98

Record

67%

102538-50861 (153399)

Both legs:

Down$279.2567.2¢+$22.15

Up$156.4448.2¢-$67.13

KARIZMATIKU

Down

Invested

$193.21

Value

$176.04

PnL

-$17.17

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Invested

$192.64

Value

$166.32

PnL

-$26.32

Record

67%

22484-10826 (33310)

Both legs:

Up$140.8948.2¢-$40.07

Down$51.7551.7¢+$13.75

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$167

Value

$148.25

PnL

-$18.74

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Down$95.7165.9¢+$12.48

Up$71.2945.4¢-$31.23

almachCTR

Invested

$169.39

Value

$126.26

PnL

-$43.13

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$211.12

Value

$123.83

PnL

-$87.29

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$181.14

Value

$121.62

PnL

-$59.52

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

RLWGCTR

Invested

$172.79

Value

$114.69

PnL

-$58.1

Record

50%

8363-8418 (16781)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$186.11

Value

$111.02

PnL

-$75.09

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.37

Value

$109.42

PnL

+$1.05

Record

30%

12160-28125 (40285)

Both legs:

Down$59.4161.2¢+$4.13

Up$48.9736.8¢-$3.08

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$56

Value

$47.46

PnL

-$8.54

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$81.37

Value

$41.16

PnL

-$3.06

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$36.47

Value

$34.33

PnL

-$2.15

Record

56%

77369-59755 (137124)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$28.03

Value

$26.38

PnL

-$1.66

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$23.92

Value

$24.95

PnL

+$1.03

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$8.44

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$2.17

Record

58%

63261-46470 (109731)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$15.81

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$5.96

Record

61%

98563-62545 (161108)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$11.68

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$2.31

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$1.37

Record

61%

46056-29221 (75277)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$3.1

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

12307-11342 (23649)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.26

Record

65%

114545-61579 (176124)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.26

Record

59%

2990-2083 (5073)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.8%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$303.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

403.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.