Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-11-06?

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 37¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 6

Yes64¢No36¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$261.2

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 36.5¢

-33% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,234

Combined PnL-$302.45

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,541

Combined PnL+$563.65

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 58¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$18.19	49% 292-304 (596)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 37.6¢	$780.66	$1.4K	+$577.17	57% 2069-1535 (3604)
RN1CTR	Noavg 46.9¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$329.27	53% 61818-54099 (115917)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 58¢	$986	$986	+$0	64% 10095-5700 (15795)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$953.82	$822.81	-$131.01	51% 26515-25136 (51651)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.9¢	$852.4	$650.19	-$202.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.3¢	$101.42	$172.61	+$71.2
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 58¢	$807.28	$814.24	+$6.96	64% 10073-5631 (15704)
AF afraz	Yesavg 43.2¢	$354.39	$344.4	-$9.99	58% 189-135 (324)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 41¢	$146.01	$147.78	+$1.78	50% 28646-28478 (57124)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 40.2¢	$125.27	$120	-$5.27	84% 14974-2900 (17874)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$59.56	$62.81	+$3.25	50% 1630-1659 (3289)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$48.75	$49.96	+$1.2	52% 14604-13281 (27885)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$30.11	$31.76	+$1.65	50% 1614-1641 (3255)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$14.41	$13.83	-$0.59	49% 1568-1653 (3221)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$12.9	$12.9	-$0	47% 365-414 (779)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$10.19	$9.92	-$0.26	66% 24362-12437 (36799)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 40.1¢	$8.89	$9.09	+$0.2	51% 1672-1583 (3255)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$76.37	$7.56	-$1.68	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$9.06	$7.48	-$1.58	50% 21413-21676 (43089)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$7.12	$6.66	-$0.06	50% 26140-25802 (51942)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$6.66	$6.55	-$0.12	53% 6294-5580 (11874)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.65	$4.39	-$0.26	48% 3353-3570 (6923)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$3.06	$2.9	-$0.16	59% 33112-23285 (56397)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.07	+$0.02	52% 8861-8048 (16909)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$2,109.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$18.19

Record

49%

292-304 (596)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$780.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$577.17

Record

57%

2069-1535 (3604)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,489.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$329.27

Record

53%

61818-54099 (115917)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$986

Value

$986

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10095-5700 (15795)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$953.82

Value

$822.81

PnL

-$131.01

Record

51%

26515-25136 (51651)

Both legs:

No$852.447.9¢-$202.21

Yes$101.4237.3¢+$71.2

NM-PCTR

Invested

$807.28

Value

$814.24

PnL

+$6.96

Record

64%

10073-5631 (15704)

afraz

Yes

Invested

$354.39

Value

$344.4

PnL

-$9.99

Record

58%

189-135 (324)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$146.01

Value

$147.78

PnL

+$1.78

Record

50%

28646-28478 (57124)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$125.27

Value

$120

PnL

-$5.27

Record

84%

14974-2900 (17874)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$59.56

Value

$62.81

PnL

+$3.25

Record

50%

1630-1659 (3289)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$48.75

Value

$49.96

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

14604-13281 (27885)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$30.11

Value

$31.76

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

1614-1641 (3255)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.41

Value

$13.83

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

1568-1653 (3221)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Invested

$12.9

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

365-414 (779)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$10.19

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.26

Record

66%

24362-12437 (36799)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

1672-1583 (3255)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$76.37

Value

$7.56

PnL

-$1.68

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$1.58

Record

50%

21413-21676 (43089)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

26140-25802 (51942)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.55

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

6294-5580 (11874)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$0.26

Record

48%

3353-3570 (6923)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.16

Record

59%

33112-23285 (56397)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

8861-8048 (16909)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.