Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 70¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$240.39

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 69.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,136

Combined PnL-$184.32

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,233

Combined PnL-$56.06

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 74.7¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$387.34	63% 175-102 (277)
AN anoin123	Noavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$140.65	46% 459-547 (1006)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$975	$808.19	-$166.81	42% 490-683 (1173)
HU hugecaulk	Noavg 66.6¢	$534.72	$557.78	+$23.06	5% 1-19 (20)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$216.63	$291.92	+$75.29	1% 3-272 (275)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$138	$148.71	+$10.71	47% 4795-5410 (10205)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$91.52	$92.46	+$0.94	41% 13-19 (32)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$53.48	$27.28	+$23.81	— 5-4 (9)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 71.9¢	$160.2	$12.26	+$39.3	40% 3217-4824 (8041)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$3,595.34

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$387.34

Record

63%

175-102 (277)

anoin123

Invested

$1,525

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$140.65

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$975

Value

$808.19

PnL

-$166.81

Record

42%

490-683 (1173)

hugecaulk

Invested

$534.72

Value

$557.78

PnL

+$23.06

Record

1-19 (20)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$216.63

Value

$291.92

PnL

+$75.29

Record

3-272 (275)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$138

Value

$148.71

PnL

+$10.71

Record

47%

4795-5410 (10205)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.52

Value

$92.46

PnL

+$0.94

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.48

Value

$27.28

PnL

+$23.81

Record

—

5-4 (9)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$160.2

Value

$12.26

PnL

+$39.3

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.