Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $122 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$121.75
-$8.54
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
228h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LesterDiamond<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $73.37 | $73.56 | +$0.19 | 64% 5396-3050 (8446) |
 WojtekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $4.43 | $33.6 | -$9.63 | 20% 412-1641 (2053) |
 iutwpfalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $11.87 | $13.09 | +$1.23 | 56% 417-325 (742) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $1.03 | $0.7 | -$0.33 | 23% 177-601 (778) |
Invested
$73.37
Value
$73.56
PnL
+$0.19
Record
64%
5396-3050 (8446)
WojtekCTR<$100Invested
$4.43
Value
$33.6
PnL
-$9.63
Record
20%
412-1641 (2053)
iutwpfalCTR<$100Invested
$11.87
Value
$13.09
PnL
+$1.23
Record
56%
417-325 (742)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.33
Record
23%
177-601 (778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.