Consensus PnL $920K · win rate 79% (1300–351, n=1651) · PM monthly #267 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$920.1K
Record
1300W / 351L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 1651 settled
Batting Avg
23.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#486
Source
PM monthly #267
Record (90 d)
291/299 · 97%
Trades
4,309
Markets
3,088
Volume
$58.0M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AB8 $14K · now 87¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Legacy)
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFURIA $7.5K · now 100¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Natus Vincere)
Specialties
1,743 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 73¢- Esports
+22 pts
side won 95% of 1232 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +6%
- NBA
+13 pts
side won 85% of 507 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 72% of 83)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 84% of 286)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 88% of 435)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 98% of 939)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.