Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (50%) · FURIA at 54¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 3

FURIA54¢Natus Vincere46¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 50%

Total Value

$47.1K

Combined PnL

$61.2

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA54%

Natus Vincere47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA9 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares50,379

Combined PnL-$13.3

Natus Vincere9 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares43,601

Combined PnL+$74.5

FURIA — 50%Natus Vincere — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFURIA 50% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 53% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	FURIAavg 53¢	$10.5K	$10.6K	+$99.28	53% 767-681 (1448)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$9.9K	$9.9K	+$108.2	46% 54-64 (118)
VI vibing123	FURIAavg 54¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$60.49	52% 1589-1476 (3065)
SH shawCTR	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$84.19	53% 2306-2065 (4371)
relativesignificance	FURIAavg 54¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$33.92	56% 126-98 (224)
RA Rayaya	FURIAavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$20	60% 1195-785 (1980)
ShadowRealmsCTR	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$19.46	52% 121-113 (234)
Stickman22CTR	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$17.5	52% 1682-1557 (3239)
12monkeys	FURIAavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15	37% 506-864 (1370)
sapupu	FURIAavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$14.27	54% 87-73 (160)
BL BlessedKaladinCTR	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15	51% 998-941 (1939)
LaminionYamalCTR	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	44% 1853-2359 (4212)
MA manoamano	FURIAavg 54¢	$782.72	$775.47	-$7.25	51% 544-513 (1057)
OM omnibus-076daa	FURIAavg 54¢	$103.45	$102.49	-$0.96	50% 20032-20390 (40422)
KA KaczkaCTR<$100	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$100	$98.94	-$1.06	—
IW iWasEnough<$100	FURIAavg 54¢	$75.25	$74.55	-$0.7	51% 11557-10943 (22500)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$39.95	$39.53	-$0.42	53% 748-666 (1414)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$1.9	$1.92	+$0.02	45% 13352-16261 (29613)

Wiretransferxyz

FURIA

Invested

$10,523.27

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$99.28

Record

53%

767-681 (1448)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$9,884.62

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$108.2

Record

46%

54-64 (118)

vibing123

FURIA

Invested

$6,536.49

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$60.49

Record

52%

1589-1476 (3065)

shawCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,956.99

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$84.19

Record

53%

2306-2065 (4371)

relativesignificance

FURIA

Invested

$3,664.11

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$33.92

Record

56%

126-98 (224)

Rayaya

FURIA

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

60%

1195-785 (1980)

ShadowRealmsCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,790.07

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$19.46

Record

52%

121-113 (234)

Stickman22CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,610

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

52%

1682-1557 (3239)

12monkeys

FURIA

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15

Record

37%

506-864 (1370)

sapupu

FURIA

Invested

$1,541

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.27

Record

54%

87-73 (160)

BlessedKaladinCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,379.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

998-941 (1939)

LaminionYamalCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,379.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

1853-2359 (4212)

manoamano

FURIA

Invested

$782.72

Value

$775.47

PnL

-$7.25

Record

51%

544-513 (1057)

omnibus-076daa

FURIA

Invested

$103.45

Value

$102.49

PnL

-$0.96

Record

50%

20032-20390 (40422)

KaczkaCTR<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$100

Value

$98.94

PnL

-$1.06

Record

—

iWasEnough<$100

FURIA

Invested

$75.25

Value

$74.55

PnL

-$0.7

Record

51%

11557-10943 (22500)

VenusianCTR<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$39.95

Value

$39.53

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

748-666 (1414)

suntoriCTR<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

45%

13352-16261 (29613)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFURIA 50% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 53% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.