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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| xcaiox | levaluv | BreakTheBank | NiNo999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 87% (158–23, n=181) | 49% (36–38, n=74) | 45% (501–606, n=1107) | 45% (551–664, n=1215) |
| Consensus PnL | $13K | $27K | $12.1M | -$502K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #722 | was PM monthly #851 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #985 |
| Sides with the consensus | 72% (13 of 18 open) | no open consensus position | 74% (25 of 34 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Politics −1 pts, n=10 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 85% of 137 at avg 74¢, ROI +15% | 89% of 38 at avg 52¢, ROI +32% | 97% of 497 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 90% of 616 at avg 50¢, ROI +39% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 7% (won 30% of 10) | 3% (won 0% of 1) | 11% (won 85% of 53) | 8% (won 76% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 60% of 10) | 32% (won 83% of 12) | 34% (won 98% of 169) | 39% (won 87% of 242) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 18% (won 71% of 24) | 66% (won 96% of 25) | 34% (won 99% of 170) | 48% (won 94% of 298) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 68% (won 98% of 93) | 0% | 21% (won 100% of 105) | 4% (won 96% of 27) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.