PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market58% (534–392, n=926)95% (111–6, n=117)49% (1265–1326, n=2591)
Consensus PnL—$597K$37K$331K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #977PM monthly #75was PM monthly #997 + pinnedPM monthly #115
Sides with the consensus0% (0 of 1 open)71% (5 of 7 open)100% (1 of 1 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • Esports +39 pts n=11, ROI +36%
  • Soccer +35 pts n=13, ROI +49%
  • MLB +27 pts n=17, ROI −3%
none with 10+ settled
  • Soccer +11 pts n=1124, ROI +8%
  • NHL +8 pts n=15, ROI +5%
Weakest topic—NBA −1 pts, n=279Geopolitics −1 pts, n=28—
Settled positions, side won79% of 76 at avg 53¢, ROI +24%57% of 957 at avg 50¢, ROI +4%96% of 140 at avg 97¢, ROI 0%77% of 1140 at avg 66¢, ROI +8%
Entries under 30¢9% (won 57% of 7)12% (won 25% of 114)0%16% (won 31% of 184)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 80% of 20)44% (won 54% of 418)1% (won 0% of 1)13% (won 60% of 146)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 76% of 37)33% (won 63% of 312)2% (won 67% of 3)17% (won 77% of 192)
Entries 70¢ and up16% (won 100% of 12)12% (won 89% of 113)97% (won 98% of 136)54% (won 94% of 618)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.