Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
primmRN1Udonsan
Record (consensus markets)50% (1120–1127, n=2247)47% (14272–15777, n=30049)82% (408–91, n=499)
Consensus PnL$3.6M$14.8M$94K
Tracked asPM monthly #50PM monthly #29 + pinnedPM monthly #977
Sides with the consensus59% (10 of 17 open)46% (29 of 63 open)93% (41 of 44 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topic——Weather −2 pts, n=100
Settled positions, side won99% of 1020 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 25960 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%86% of 373 at avg 84¢, ROI +7%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2588)5% (won 18% of 17)
Entries 30–50¢41% (won 99% of 418)22% (won 94% of 5673)3% (won 10% of 10)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 99% of 504)35% (won 99% of 9163)6% (won 48% of 23)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8536)87% (won 95% of 323)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketprimmRN1Udonsan
Spread: Arizona (-13.5)
opposite sides · consensus TCU
TCU $7.6KArizona $621—
Spread: Arizona (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus TCU
TCU $2.0KArizona $788—
Spread: Arizona (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Arizona
TCU $1.4KArizona $1.1K—
Spread: Arizona (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Arizona
TCU $521Arizona $848—
Spread: Arizona (-8.5)
same side · consensus Arizona
TCU $495TCU $1.5K—
TCU vs. Arizona: O/U 43.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $332Over $1.3K—